NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jan 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 21-Jan 23 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 21-Jan 23 2019
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 0 1 2 06-09UT 0 1 3 09-12UT 1 2 3 12-15UT 1 1 4 15-18UT 1 1 3 18-21UT 1 2 4 21-00UT 2 1 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 23 Jan due to the arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2019
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2019
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jan 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. New spot emergence was observed near N07E45. Beginning at 21/0130 UTC, a filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery in the SW quadrant. Although the direction of the liftoff appeared to be southward of the Sun-Earth line, further coronagraph imagery is needed for analysis.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 21-23 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on 21-23 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from approximately 320-385 km/s. Total field was at or below 5 nT while the Bz component was between +2/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to continue at nominal levels on 21-22 Jan. An enhancement is anticipated on 23 Jan due to the onset of a CIR/CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 21-22 Jan under a nominal solar wind regime. Active conditions are likely on 23 Jan due to the anticipated onset from a positive polarity CH HSS.
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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Jan 21 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA021 UGEOA 20401 90121 0330/ 9930/ 10211 20211 30211 99999 UGEOE 20401 90121 0330/ 20/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90121 0330/ 20/// 10000 20690 3004/ 4///0 50000 66909 71804 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90121 0330/ 20/24 21100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Jan 21 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 021 Issued at 0245Z on 21 Jan 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Field conditions were at quiet levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/004 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #19-3 2019 January 20 at 6:06 p.m. MST (2019 January 21 0106 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For January 14-20
No significant space weather storms were observed during the summary period.
Outlook For January 21-27
G1 (Minor) solar geomagnetic storms are likely on 24 January due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.
No other significant space weather is expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jan 21 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 21-Jan 23 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 21-Jan 23 2019
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 3 09-12UT 1 2 3 12-15UT 1 1 4 15-18UT 1 1 3 18-21UT 2 2 4 21-00UT 2 1 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2019
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2019
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jan 21 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 21-23 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on 21-23 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. Solar wind speeds ranged from 340-385 km/s, total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT and phi was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to continue at nominal levels on 21-22 Jan. An enhancement is anticipated on 23 Jan due to a SSBC in advance of the onset from a positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 21-22 Jan under a nominal solar wind regime. Active conditions are likely on 23 Jan due to the anticipated onset from a positive polarity CH HSS.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Jan 21 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 21 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Jan 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 21 Jan to 23 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 385 km/s at 20/1832Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 20/1951Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (21 Jan, 22 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Jan 069 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 006/005-006/005-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/35 Minor Storm 01/01/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/60
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