Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 22 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2776 (S14W38, Hsx/alpha)remained quiescent. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 22-24 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 22-24 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total field strength averaged near 7 nT, the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -5 nT, wind speed was between 330-415 km/s, and the Phi angle was oriented predominantly in the negative sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to see intermittent enhancements on 22-24 Oct due to the influence of several CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels, with G1 (Minor) levels likely on 22-23 Oct, due to influences from a series of extensions from the northern crown CH HSS. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 24 Oct as CH HSS effects persist, yet begin to subside.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 22 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2020
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 00-03UT 3 4 3 03-06UT 1 5 (G1) 4 06-09UT 1 4 3 09-12UT 0 4 3 12-15UT 3 3 2 15-18UT 2 3 3 18-21UT 5 (G1) 2 3 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) levels are likely on 22-23 Oct, due to influences from a series of extensions from the northern crown CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2020
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2020
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 22 0349 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 296 Issued at 0245Z on 22 Oct 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Levels were mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 074 SSN 011 Afr/Ap 007/007 X-ray Background A2.0 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 3.3e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 4.50e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 1 4 2 1 2 1 2 Planetary 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 F. Comments: None
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Oct 22 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA296 UGEOA 20401 01022 0330/ 9930/ 10221 22222 30223 99999 UGEOE 20401 01022 0330/ 21/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 01022 0330/ 21/// 10011 20740 3010/ 4///0 50000 62008 74504 80001 90070 99999 UGEOR 20401 01022 0330/ 21/24 22101 12776 20000 30000 47201 50070 60001 33114 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 22 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 296 Issued at 0245Z on 22 Oct 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Levels were mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 074 SSN 011 Afr/Ap 007/007 X-ray Background A2.0 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 3.3e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 4.50e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 1 4 2 1 2 1 2 Planetary 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 F. Comments: None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2776 (S14W31, Hsx/alpha) remained stable, but did produce two B-level enhancements during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 22-24 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 22-24 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Despite a prolonged gap in solar wind data, solar wind parameters reflected the likely influence of several anticipated CH HSS. Total field strength again reached 10 nT, Bz varied between +/- 4 nT, wind speed was between 350-400 km/s, and the Phi angle oscillated between the positive and negative sectors.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced on 22-24 Oct due to the influence of several CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) levels on 22-23 Oct, and unsettled to active levels on 24 Oct due to influences from a series of extensions from the northern crown CH HSS.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2020
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 00-03UT 3 4 3 03-06UT 4 5 (G1) 4 06-09UT 2 4 3 09-12UT 3 4 3 12-15UT 3 3 2 15-18UT 2 3 3 18-21UT 5 (G1) 2 3 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected on 22 and 23 Oct with CH HSS activity. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2020
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2020
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 22 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 296 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Oct 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2776 S14W31 166 0070 Hsx 02 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 22 Oct to 24 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 21/1945Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 21/0716Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/0828Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 251 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Oct 074 Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 075/075/075 90 Day Mean 21 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 015/018-015/020-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/40/40 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/10 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 65/65/65
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 21-Oct 23 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 21-Oct 23 2020
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 00-03UT 3 4 4 03-06UT 2 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 06-09UT 4 4 4 09-12UT 3 3 4 12-15UT 3 3 3 15-18UT 3 2 3 18-21UT 4 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 21-Oct 23 2020
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 21-Oct 23 2020
Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct 23 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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