Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 May 22 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA142 UGEOA 20401 90522 0330/ 9930/ 10221 20221 30221 99999 UGEOE 20401 90522 0330/ 21/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90522 0330/ 21/// 10000 20680 3004/ 4///0 50000 66408 71904 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90522 0330/ 21/24 22100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 May 22 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 142 Issued at 0245Z on 22 May 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 21 May A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/004 X-ray Background A6.3 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 3.1e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.9e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 3.70e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 0 1 3 3 1 1 Planetary 1 2 1 1 2 0 0 1 F. Comments: None.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 May 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 22-May 24 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 22-May 24 2019
May 22 May 23 May 24 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 3 1 1 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 22-May 24 2019
May 22 May 23 May 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 22-May 24 2019
May 22 May 23 May 24 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 May 22 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 142 Issued at 0030Z on 22 May 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 May I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z May Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 22 May to 24 May Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 May 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. There were no sunspots on the visible disk, and no Earth-directed CME’s were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 22-24 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 22-24 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind measurements from DSCOVR were close to background levels. Total field strength was generally less than 5 nT, and Bz was unremarkable. Wind speeds averaged around 380 km/s, and the phi angle was in a positive orientation.
.Forecast… Minor enhancements in the solar wind are anticipated on 22 May with a series of weak, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS’s. Near-background conditions are expected on 23-24 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 22 May as a result of weak, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS’s. A return to mostly quiet levels is anticipated by 23 May, and is expected to continue into 24 May.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 449 km/s at 21/0822Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 21/0006Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 21/1049Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 112 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (22 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (23 May, 24 May).
III. Event probabilities 22 May-24 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 May 068 Predicted 22 May-24 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 21 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/15/15
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 May 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 21-May 23 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 21-May 23 2019
May 21 May 22 May 23 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 2 3 1 06-09UT 1 2 1 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 21-May 23 2019
May 21 May 22 May 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 21-May 23 2019
May 21 May 22 May 23 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 May 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. There were no sunspots on the visible disk and no Earth-directed CME’s were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 21-23 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… At geosynchronous orbit, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux both remained at normal background levels.
.Forecast… At geosynchronous orbit, the greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-23 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind measurements from the DSCOVR spacecraft were typical. Bt remained around 5 nT, and Bz was mostly positive. Phi remained positive throughout the period while the solar wind speed varied between approximately 350-450 km/s.
.Forecast… Minor enhancements in the solar wind are anticipated on 21-22 May with a series of weak, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS’s. Near-background conditions are expected on 23 May.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 21-22 May as a result of weak, recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS’s. A return to mostly quiet levels is anticipated by 23 May.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 May 21 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA141 UGEOA 20401 90521 0330/ 9930/ 10211 20211 30211 99999 UGEOE 20401 90521 0330/ 20/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90521 0330/ 20/// 10000 20690 3006/ 4///0 50000 66808 71904 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90521 0330/ 20/24 21100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 May 21 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 141 Issued at 0245Z on 21 May 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 20 May A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 007/006 X-ray Background A6.7 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 3.4e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.9e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 3.40e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 3 2 2 1 2 3 1 1 Planetary 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 F. Comments: None.
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