Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jul 09 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no active regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels 09-11 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… Both the greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event thresholds over 09-11 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind environment was generally at background levels. Total field was less than 5 nT, and Bz was relatively flat. Wind speed leveled off around 350 km/s after starting the day closer to 400 km/s. Phi was positive.
.Forecast… Minor enhancements are possible 09 Jul with flanking influences from the 05 Jul CME.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… Unsettled periods are possible on 09 Jul. Otherwise, quiet levels are anticipated.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jul 09 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 09-Jul 11 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 09-Jul 11 2020
Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 3 1 1 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 09-Jul 11 2020
Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 09-Jul 11 2020
Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul 11 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jul 09 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 191 Issued at 0030Z on 09 Jul 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 08 Jul I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 08/2400Z Jul Nmbr Location Lo 2766 N04W40 123 II. Regions Due to Return 09 Jul to 11 Jul Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (09 Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 07/2301Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 224 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (09 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 08 Jul 067 Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 08 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/05/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 25/10/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jul 08 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 08-Jul 10 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 08-Jul 10 2020
Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 00-03UT 0 3 2 03-06UT 1 3 1 06-09UT 0 2 1 09-12UT 0 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 3 1 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 08-Jul 10 2020
Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 08-Jul 10 2020
Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jul 08 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels 08-10 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… Both the greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event thresholds over 08-10 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The Solar wind environment continued a gradual return to ambient-like conditions. Wind speeds fell from ~430 km/s to ~375 km/s by period’s end. Total field was steady between 2-3 nT, and the Bz component was at or near neutral. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector.
.Forecast… Elevated levels are possible 08-09 Jul with minor influences from the 05 Jul CME.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… Unsettled periods are possible on 08-09 Jul due to weak, glancing influence from the 05 Jul CME. Otherwise, quiet levels are anticipated.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Jul 08 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA190 UGEOA 20401 00708 0330/ 9930/ 10081 20082 30082 99999 UGEOE 20401 00708 0330/ 07/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00708 0330/ 07/// 10000 20680 3004/ 4///0 50000 66309 74604 80001 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00708 0330/ 07/24 08100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Jul 08 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 190 Issued at 0245Z on 08 Jul 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Jul A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 005/005 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jul 08 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 190 Issued at 0030Z on 08 Jul 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 07 Jul I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 07/2400Z Jul Nmbr Location Lo 2766 N04W26 122 II. Regions Due to Return 08 Jul to 10 Jul Nmbr Lat Lo None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jul 08 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 08-Jul 10 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 08-Jul 10 2020
Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 00-03UT 2 3 2 03-06UT 1 3 1 06-09UT 1 2 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 3 1 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 08-Jul 10 2020
Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 08-Jul 10 2020
Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul 10 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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