Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 14 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2724 (S08E33, Axx/alpha) exhibited decay and produced a pair of low-level B-class flares early in the period. Region 2725 (S11E51, Axx/alpha) remained relatively stable throughout the period and was quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 14-16 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels early in the period, with a peak flux of 29,400 pfu observed at 13/1555 UTC, before decreasing to normal levels following a period of elevated geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase to moderate levels late on 14 Oct with high levels likely on 15-16 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS this period. Solar wind speeds steadily increased from initial values near 350 km/s to a peak of around 590 km/s, observed at 14/1108 UTC. During initial CH HSS onset early this period, total field strength values reached 13 nT and Bz was sustained southward between 13/1500-1630 UTC.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through early on 15 Oct under continued, but weakening CH HSS influence. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected by 16 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels between 13/1500-2359 UTC in response to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 14 Oct due to continued CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes and generally quiet conditions are expected on 16 Oct with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Oct 14 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA287 UGEOA 20401 81014 0330/ 9930/ 10141 22141 30141 99999 UGEOE 20401 81014 0330/ 13/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81014 0330/ 13/// 10022 20720 3014/ 4///0 50000 61109 71704 80102 90020 99999 UGEOR 20401 81014 0330/ 13/24 14102 12724 20000 30100 47201 50010 60001 24008 00000 12725 20000 30000 41001 50010 60001 25910 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 14 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 287 Issued at 0245Z on 14 Oct 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 072 SSN 022 Afr/Ap 012/014 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 14 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 14-Oct 16 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 14-Oct 16 2018
Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 00-03UT 4 4 2 03-06UT 5 (G1) 4 2 06-09UT 4 3 2 09-12UT 3 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 4 2 1
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected on day one (Oct 14) due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2018
Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 14-Oct 16 2018
Oct 14 Oct 15 Oct 16 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 14 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2724 (S08E40, Hsx/alpha) has continued to decay over the course of the period. Region 2725 (S10E59, Axx/alpha) has remained unremarkable showing no signs of growth or decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available chronograph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 14-16 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak value of 32,400 pfu observed at 13/0005 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 14 Oct due to enhanced geomagnetic field activity. Electrons are expected to return to moderate to high levels on 15-16 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind environment became enhanced this period due to a SSBC followed by the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field strength values increased from around 5 nT early in the period to a peak of 13 nT. Bz was mostly northward early in the period before becoming enhanced to a peak of -10 nT during the second half of the period. Solar wind speeds increased from nominal background conditions to just over 500 km/s. Phi angle began the period in a positive orientation and became negative due to a SSBC at about 13/1645 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced on 14 Oct through midday on 15 Oct due to continued influence from a CH HSS. 16 Oct will see a downward trend to a more nominal solar wind environment.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled until later in the period when G1 (Minor) storming conditions were observed followed by active conditions.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is likely to be at G1 (Minor) storm conditions on 14 Oct due to persistent negative polarity CH HSS effects. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 15 Oct due to waning influence of the negative polarity CH HSS. A return to quiet conditions is expected on 16 Oct.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 14 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 287 Issued at 0030Z on 14 Oct 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2724 S08E40 130 0010 Hsx 02 01 Alpha 2725 S10E59 111 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 13/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 14 Oct to 16 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (14 Oct, 15 Oct, 16 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 13/2056Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 13/1806Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 13/1524Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 35256 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (14 Oct), quiet to active levels on day two (15 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (16 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 13 Oct 072 Predicted 14 Oct-16 Oct 072/071/070 90 Day Mean 13 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct 012/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 014/030-010/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/20/10 Minor Storm 25/05/01 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 60/25/20
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 13 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 13-Oct 15 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 13-Oct 15 2018
Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 00-03UT 1 4 3 03-06UT 3 4 3 06-09UT 1 4 3 09-12UT 1 3 2 12-15UT 1 3 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 13-Oct 15 2018
Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 13-Oct 15 2018
Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct 15 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 13 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2724 (S08E51, Bxo/beta) produced a B7/Sf flare at 12/1408 UTC, but was stable throughout the period. New Region 2725 (S10E66, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period, but was otherwise unremarkable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 13-15 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak value of 3,690 pfu observed at 12/1855 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels each of the next three days (13-15), with a brief decrease to moderate levels likely on 14 Oct due to a period of enhanced geomagnetic field activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind environment became slightly enhanced late this period due to what appears to be an imminent solar sector boundary crossing. Total field strength values increased from around 2-4 nT early in the period to a peak of 9 nT, however, Bz was mostly northward following the mag field enhancement. Solar wind density values increased from 4 to around 15 particles per cubic cm as the period progressed and the phi angle was variable.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become further enhanced late on 13 Oct through midday on 15 Oct due to a solar sector boundary followed by the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels on 13 Oct due to an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing late in the day. Periods of active conditions are expected on 14 Oct due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 15 Oct under waning CH HSS influence.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Oct 13 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA286 UGEOA 20401 81013 0330/ 9930/ 10131 20131 30131 99999 UGEOE 20401 81013 0330/ 12/01 01432 0150/ 01562 02199 1//// 0//// ///// 92724 99999 UGEOI 20401 81013 0330/ 12/// 10011 20720 3005/ 4///0 50000 61209 71604 80101 90020 99999 UGEOR 20401 81013 0330/ 12/24 13101 12724 20000 30100 47101 50020 60001 25708 01000 99999

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