Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Jul 15 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA196 UGEOA 20401 80715 0330/ 9930/ 10151 20151 30151 99999 UGEOE 20401 80715 0330/ 14/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80715 0330/ 14/// 10000 20720 3005/ 4///0 50000 63308 71904 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 80715 0330/ 14/24 15100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Jul 15 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 196 Issued at 0245Z on 15 Jul 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Jul A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 072 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/004 X-ray Background A3.2 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 4.5e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.9e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W136 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 4.50e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W136 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 1 2 2 2 3 1 1 Planetary 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 F. Comments: None.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Jul 15 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 15-Jul 17 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 15-Jul 17 2018
Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 00-03UT 2 3 2 03-06UT 1 2 2 06-09UT 1 2 1 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 3 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2018
Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 15-Jul 17 2018
Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Jul 14 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 15-17 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 15-17 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were nominal.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on 15-17 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15-16 Jul) due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Day three (17 Jul) should be mostly quiet as CH HSS effects lessen.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Jul 15 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 196 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Jul 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Jul I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Jul Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 15 Jul to 17 Jul Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 515 km/s at 14/0231Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 14/0236Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 14/1516Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 110 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (17 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 14 Jul 072 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul-17 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/15
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Jul 14 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 14-Jul 16 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 14-Jul 16 2018
Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 2 1 2 06-09UT 2 1 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 2 3 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 14-Jul 16 2018
Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 14-Jul 16 2018
Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Jul 14 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 14-16 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 14-16 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind regime.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced on 14-16 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (14 Jul). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three (15-16 Jul) due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Jul 14 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA195 UGEOA 20401 80714 0330/ 9930/ 10141 20141 30141 99999 UGEOE 20401 80714 0330/ 13/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80714 0330/ 13/// 10000 20730 3006/ 4///0 50000 63108 71804 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 80714 0330/ 13/24 14100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Jul 14 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 195 Issued at 0245Z on 14 Jul 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 13 Jul A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was unsettled. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 073 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 006/007 X-ray Background A3.1 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 6.4e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.8e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W136 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 3.60e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W136 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 Planetary 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 F. Comments: None.
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