NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jan 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 20-Jan 22 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 20-Jan 22 2019
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2019
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2019
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jan 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 20-22 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 20-22 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed between 340-405 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-4 nT while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly negative solar sector.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to continue at nominal levels on 20-22 Jan.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 20-22 Jan under a nominal solar wind regime.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Jan 20 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA020 UGEOA 20401 90120 0330/ 9930/ 10201 20201 30201 99999 UGEOE 20401 90120 0330/ 19/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90120 0330/ 19/// 10000 20700 3004/ 4///0 50000 67009 71704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90120 0330/ 19/24 20100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Jan 20 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 020 Issued at 0245Z on 20 Jan 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Field activity was at quiet levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/004 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jan 20 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 20-Jan 22 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 20-Jan 22 2019
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2019
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2019
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jan 20 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 20-22 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 20-22 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, indicated mostly nominal conditions. Solar wind speeds declined from 430 km/s to 370 km/s by the period’s end. Total magnetic field strength was below 5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to continue at nominal levels on 20-22 Jan.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to isolated unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 20-22 Jan under a nominal solar wind regime.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Jan 20 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 20 Issued at 0030Z on 20 Jan 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 20 Jan to 22 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 18/2110Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jan 070 Predicted 20 Jan-22 Jan 070/071/071 90 Day Mean 19 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jan 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jan-22 Jan 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jan 19 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity continued at very low levels under a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 19-21 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels over the period. Solar wind speed declined from approximately 480 km/s to near 390 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-4 nT while the Bz component was between +/-3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative sector.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to be at nominal levels on 19-21 Jan.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 19-21 Jan under a nominal solar wind regime.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jan 19 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 19-Jan 21 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 19-Jan 21 2019
Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 0 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 19-Jan 21 2019
Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 19-Jan 21 2019
Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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