Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 12 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No active regions with sunspots or Earth directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 12-15 Nov.
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 12-14 Nov, but could increase to high levels by 14 Nov as a result of CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were enhanced at L1. It is unclear if this enhancement is a result of a negative polarity CH HSS, a slow-moving transient, or both. Nonetheless the solar wind environment is disturbed. Wind speeds increased from around 315 km/s to just shy of 400 km/s around 11/1300 UTC. Winds then leveled off around 365 km/s for the remainder of the day. The day began with phi oriented in a positive solar sector before changing into a negative sector. This change in phi happened after field strength was already agitated, which lends itself to this activity being the result of a weak transient, rather than the CH HSS, which had been forecast. Field strength peaked at 11 nT once in a negative solar sector, and Bz underwent a maximum southward deflection of -11 nT. Field strength remained elevated through the end of the day.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced into 12 Nov due to influences from a possible transient and a negative polarity CH HSS. A return to nominal conditions is anticipated by 13 Nov.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under an enhanced solar wind environment.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels on 12 Nov with an enhanced IMF. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 13 Nov, and mostly quiet conditions are expected on 14 Nov as the solar wind environment settles.
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