Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 21-23 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 21 Jan. Moderate to high levels are possible on 22-23 Jan with possible arrival of a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Phi angle was predominantly negative.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment could become enhanced on 21-22 Jan with the possible arrival of a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Otherwise mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for the next three days (21-23 Jan).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through 22 Jan with possible influence from a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. An isolated active period (Kp=4) is possible if this feature becomes geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions can be expected by 23 Jan.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 21-Jan 23 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 21-Jan 23 2020
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 00-03UT 0 3 2 03-06UT 0 3 2 06-09UT 1 2 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 3 1 1 18-21UT 4 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2020
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2020
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Jan 21 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA021 UGEOA 20401 00121 0330/ 9930/ 10211 21211 30211 99999 UGEOE 20401 00121 0330/ 20/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00121 0330/ 20/// 10000 20710 3002/ 4///0 50000 62309 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00121 0330/ 20/24 21100 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Jan 21 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 021 Issued at 0245Z on 21 Jan 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/001 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jan 21 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 21 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Jan 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 21 Jan to 23 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 21 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Analysis of SOHO/Lasco coronagraph imagery confirms there was no CME associated with the B1/Sf flare and coronal dimming that occurred at or around 19/1835 UTC. There were no other significant solar features of note.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 21-23 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 21 Jan. Moderate to high levels are possible on 22-23 Jan with possible arrival of a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels. Phi angle frequently varied between positive and negative sectors.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment could become enhanced on 21-22 Jan with the possible arrival of a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Otherwise mostly quiet conditions are anticipated for the next three days (21-23 Jan).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels through 22 Jan with possible influence from a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. An isolated active period (Kp=4) is possible if this feature becomes geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions can be expected by 23 Jan.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 21 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 21-Jan 23 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 21-Jan 23 2020
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 00-03UT 2 3 2 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 3 1 1 18-21UT 4 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2020
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2020
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 20 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (21 Jan, 22 Jan, 23 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 20/0150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 212 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (22 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (23 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Jan 071 Predicted 21 Jan-23 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 20 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jan-23 Jan 009/010-009/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jan-23 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/25/15
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 20-Jan 22 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 20-Jan 22 2020
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 00-03UT 0 4 3 03-06UT 1 3 3 06-09UT 0 2 3 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 3 2 2 18-21UT 3 3 2 21-00UT 4 4 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2020
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 20-Jan 22 2020
Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 20 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. An area of enhanced plage, located near N22E30, showed signs of possible pore development but was not numbered during the period. At 19/1835 UTC, a B1/Sf flare was observed near the area of enhanced plage. Associated with this flare, coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 195 imagery. Analysis of any potential CME will be conducted as coronagraph imagery becomes available.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 20-22 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on 20 Jan. Moderate to high levels are likely on 21-22 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with a steady, gradual decrease in wind speeds through the period from about 340 km/s to near 300 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-4 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-2 nT. Phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative sector with periodic positive sector oscillations.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are likely to become enhanced on 20-21 Jan due to negative polarity CH HSS onset. A gradual return to a more nominal solar wind environment is expected on 22 Jan as CH HSS effects diminish.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels, with a chance for isolated active conditions, as onset of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected midday on 20 Jan. Unsettled to active conditions are expected to persist through 21 Jan. By 22 Jan, quiet to unsettled levels are expected to continue as CH HSS influence begins to taper off.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.