Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 26 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 26-28 Feb.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate levels on 26-28 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained at mostly background levels. Solar wind speeds fluctuated between 335-365 km/s, total field averaged between 3-7 nT, Bz ranged from -3 to 5 nT, and Phi angle was mostly negative.
.Forecast… Minor enhancements in the solar wind environment are possible on 26 Feb due to potential interaction with a south polar extension CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field may become elevated to unsettled levels on 26 Feb if a south polar extension CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Otherwise quiet conditions are expected through 28 Feb.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Feb 26 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 26-Feb 28 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 26-Feb 28 2020
Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb 28 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 3 1 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 26-Feb 28 2020
Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb 28 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 26-Feb 28 2020
Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb 28 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Feb 26 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA057 UGEOA 20401 00226 0330/ 9930/ 10261 20261 30261 99999 UGEOE 20401 00226 0330/ 25/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00226 0330/ 25/// 10000 20710 3003/ 4///0 50000 64509 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00226 0330/ 25/24 26100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Feb 26 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 057 Issued at 0245Z on 26 Feb 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 25 Feb A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 003/002 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Feb 26 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 57 Issued at 0030Z on 26 Feb 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 25 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 25/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 26 Feb to 28 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 26 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 26-28 Feb.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate levels on 26-28 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at mostly background levels. Solar wind speeds leveled off just below 350 km/s by day’s end. Total field averaged between 3-4 nT, Bz was insignificant, and Phi angle was negative.
.Forecast… Minor enhancements in the solar wind environment are possible on 26 Feb due to potential interaction with a south polar extension CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field may become elevated to unsettled levels on 26 Feb if a south polar extension CH HSS becomes geoeffective. Otherwise quiet conditions are expected through 28 Feb.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Feb 26 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 26-Feb 28 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 26-Feb 28 2020
Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb 28 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 2 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 3 1 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 26-Feb 28 2020
Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb 28 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 26-Feb 28 2020
Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb 28 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 423 km/s at 25/0001Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 956 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (27 Feb, 28 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 25 Feb 071 Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 25 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 006/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Feb 25 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 25-Feb 27 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 25-Feb 27 2020
Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 0 1 3 06-09UT 1 1 3 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 3 2 18-21UT 1 3 1 21-00UT 2 3 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2020
Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 25-Feb 27 2020
Feb 25 Feb 26 Feb 27 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 25 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 25-27 Feb.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 25-27 Feb due to elevated solar wind speeds. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected a return to background conditions. Solar wind speeds continued their downward trend, with end of period values near 350 km/s. Total field averaged near 4 nT, Bz was nominal, and the Phi angle was mostly negative.
.Forecast… Weak enhancements in the solar wind environment are possible on 26-27 Feb due to potential interaction with a negative polarity, south polar extension CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 25 Feb, then become unsettled through 27 Feb with possible CH HSS (negative polarity) activity. There is a slight chance for active conditions on 26-27 Feb as well if this feature becomes geoeffective.
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