Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (05 Apr, 06 Apr, 07 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 04/0238Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 03/2324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 03/2113Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 448 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (05 Apr) and quiet levels on days two and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 04 Apr 070 Predicted 05 Apr-07 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 04 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 03 Apr 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Apr 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Apr-07 Apr 006/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Apr-07 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/10/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Apr 04 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 04-Apr 06 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 04-Apr 06 2020
Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr 06 00-03UT 2 3 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 0 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 2 3 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2020
Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr 06 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2020
Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr 06 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Apr 04 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2759 (N27E05, Cao/beta) developed trailer spots and produced multiple B-class events during the period, including a B4 flare at 04/0052 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flaring on 04-06 Apr.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,140 pfu at 03/1655 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 04 Apr and moderate levels on 05-06 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected mostly nominal conditions. Solar wind speed fluctuated between ~425-460 km/s. Total magnetic field strength did not exceed 7 nT and the Bz component dropped as low as -7 nT. Phi angle was primarily oriented in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at near nominal levels on 04 and 06 Apr. A weak enhancement from a positive polarity CH HSS is likely on 05 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until 03/2359 UTC, when an isolated active period was observed.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 04-05 Apr with generally quiet conditions expected on 06 Apr.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Apr 04 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA095 UGEOA 20401 00404 0330/ 9930/ 12041 20041 30041 99999 UGEOE 20401 00404 0330/ 03/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00404 0330/ 03/// 10013 20700 3008/ 4///0 50000 69709 74604 80001 90030 99999 UGEOR 20401 00404 0330/ 03/24 04101 12759 20000 30000 47101 50030 60003 11027 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Apr 04 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 095 Issued at 0245Z on 04 Apr 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Apr A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 013 Afr/Ap 007/008 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Apr 04 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 04-Apr 06 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 04-Apr 06 2020
Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr 06 00-03UT 4 3 2 03-06UT 3 1 1 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 2 3 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2020
Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr 06 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 04-Apr 06 2020
Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr 06 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Apr 04 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 95 Issued at 0030Z on 04 Apr 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 03 Apr I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2759 N27E10 262 0030 Hrx 01 03 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 03/2400Z Apr Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 04 Apr to 06 Apr Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Apr 04 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2759 (N27E10, Hrx/alpha) remained stable and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 04-06 Apr.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,140 pfu at 03/1650 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 04 Apr and moderate levels on Apr 05-06. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected mostly nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at 5-6 nT through most of the day. The Bz component briefly reached as far south as -5 nT. Solar wind speeds fluctuated between ~380-450 km/s. Phi angle was primarily oriented in the negative sector.
.Forecast… The solar wind field is expected to be near nominal levels on 04 and 06 Apr. A weak enhancement from a positive polarity CH HSS is likely on 05 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until 03/2359 UTC, when an isolated active period was observed.
.Forecast… Isolated active conditions are possible early on 04 Apr due to waning CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 05 Apr with generally quiet conditions expected on 06 Apr.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 94 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (04 Apr, 05 Apr, 06 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 453 km/s at 03/1621Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 03/2037Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 03/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1135 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (04 Apr, 06 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (05 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Apr 070 Predicted 04 Apr-06 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 03 Apr 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Apr 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Apr 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Apr-06 Apr 006/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Apr-06 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/20/10 Minor Storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/30/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Apr 03 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 04-Apr 06 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 04-Apr 06 2020
Apr 04 Apr 05 Apr 06 00-03UT 2 1 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 3 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2020
Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 03-Apr 05 2020
Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr 05 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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