Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 23 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the solar disk was spotless. No CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 23-25 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels this period and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 23-25 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at near-background levels. Solar wind speeds were less than 350 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Both total field and the Bz component were benign and unremarkable. Phi angle was indicative of a positive solar sector.
.Forecast… Near-background conditions are expected on 23 Oct. An enhanced solar wind is anticipated on 24-25 Oct as a result of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… Quiet levels are expected on 23 Oct. Mostly unsettled levels are expected 24-25 Oct in response to a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 23 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2018
Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 2 3 3 06-09UT 1 3 3 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 1 3 2 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2018
Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2018
Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Oct 23 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA296 UGEOA 20401 81023 0330/ 9930/ 10231 20231 30231 99999 UGEOE 20401 81023 0330/ 22/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81023 0330/ 22/// 10000 20710 3006/ 4///0 50000 65309 71704 80002 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 81023 0330/ 22/24 23100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 23 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 296 Issued at 0245Z on 23 Oct 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled period. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 005/007 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 23 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2018
Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 00-03UT 2 3 3 03-06UT 1 3 3 06-09UT 2 3 3 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 1 3 2 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2018
Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 23-Oct 25 2018
Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct 25 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 23 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 296 Issued at 0030Z on 23 Oct 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 22 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 22/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo 2724 S07W84 135 2725 S11W63 114 II. Regions Due to Return 23 Oct to 25 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 23 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the solar disk was spotless. No CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 23-25 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels this period and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 23-25 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at near-background levels. Solar wind speeds were less than 350 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Both total field and the Bz component were benign and unremarkable. Phi angle was indicative of a positive solar sector.
.Forecast… Near-background conditions are expected on 23 Oct. An enhanced solar wind is anticipated on 24-25 Oct as a result of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels with an isolated unsettled period early in the UTC day.
.Forecast… Quiet levels are expected on 23 Oct. Mostly unsettled levels are expected 24-25 Oct in response to a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (23 Oct, 24 Oct, 25 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 402 km/s at 22/0543Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 22/0408Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/2245Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (23 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 22 Oct 071 Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 071/071/070 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/005-010/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/15 Minor Storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/25 Major-severe storm 10/30/20
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 22 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the solar disk was spotless. No CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 22-24 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels this period and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to high levels on 22-24 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS this period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to decrease to near-background levels over the course of 22-23 Oct as positive polarity CH HSS influence subsides, and a nominal solar wind regime prevails. Another solar wind enhancement is expected on 24 Oct with the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period due to weak CH HSS influence.
.Forecast… Quiet conditions are expected for the remainder of 22 Oct through 23 Oct. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for active leves, are expected on 24 Oct due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 22 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2018
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 00-03UT 3 2 3 03-06UT 2 1 3 06-09UT 2 2 3 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 1 1 3 21-00UT 1 2 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2018
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 22-Oct 24 2018
Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct 24 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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