Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Feb 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 16-18 Feb.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 16-18 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected ambient background conditions.
.Forecast… Ambient solar wind conditions are anticipated throughout the forecast period (16-18 Feb).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 16-18 Feb under a nominal solar wind regime.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Feb 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 16-Feb 18 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 16-Feb 18 2019
Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 00-03UT 0 2 2 03-06UT 0 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 0 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 16-Feb 18 2019
Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 16-Feb 18 2019
Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Feb 16 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA047 UGEOA 20401 90216 0330/ 9930/ 10161 20163 30161 99999 UGEOE 20401 90216 0330/ 15/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90216 0330/ 15/// 10000 20710 3004/ 4///0 50000 64309 71704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90216 0330/ 15/24 16100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Feb 16 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 047 Issued at 0245Z on 16 Feb 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Feb A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly at quiet levels with the exception of an unsettled period early in the day. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/004 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Feb 16 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 16-18 Feb.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 16-18 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected ambient background conditions.
.Forecast… Ambient solar wind conditions are anticipated throughout the forecast period (16-18 Feb).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 16-18 Feb under a nominal solar wind regime.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Feb 16 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 16-Feb 18 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 16-Feb 18 2019
Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 16-Feb 18 2019
Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 16-Feb 18 2019
Feb 16 Feb 17 Feb 18 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Feb 16 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 47 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Feb 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 16 Feb to 18 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 15/0854Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 983 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Feb 071 Predicted 16 Feb-18 Feb 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 15 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Feb 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb-18 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 20/15/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Feb 15 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 15-Feb 17 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 15-Feb 17 2019
Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 0 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 15-Feb 17 2019
Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 15-Feb 17 2019
Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb 17 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Feb 15 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 15-17 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated to be at high levels on 15-17 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced at the end of the period. Solar wind speeds averaged ~500 km/s. Total field averaged 5 nT, while the Bz component was variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Phi was mostly in a negative orientation.
.Forecast… The southern, pole-connected CH HSS is expected to continue. Conditions should gradually wane over 15 Feb. A return to ambient quiet conditions is forecast for 16-17 Feb.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled levels on 15 Feb. 16-17 Feb are expected to see a return to quiet levels.
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