Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #18-51 2018 December 16 at 6:40 p.m. MST (2018 December 17 0140 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For December 10-16
No space weather storms were observed during the summary period.
Outlook For December 17-23
No space weather storms are expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Dec 17 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 351 Issued at 0030Z on 17 Dec 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Dec I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Dec Nmbr Location Lo 2730 N09W57 103 2731 N13E21 025 II. Regions Due to Return 17 Dec to 19 Dec Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Dec 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 17-19 Dec.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from moderate to high levels reaching a peak flux of 1,430 pfu at 16/2020 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 17-19 Dec while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from approximately 295-330 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-4 nT. Phi angle was variable until 16/0845 UTC when it settled into a mostly negative solar sector.
.Forecast… A slightly enhanced solar wind environment is possible on 17 Dec due to weak negative polarity CH HSS effects. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to return on 18-19 Dec.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 17 Dec due to possible weak CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 18-19 Dec.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Dec 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 17-Dec 19 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 17-Dec 19 2018
Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 3 2 2 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 1 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 17-Dec 19 2018
Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 17-Dec 19 2018
Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Dec, 18 Dec, 19 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 327 km/s at 16/2045Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 16/2053Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 16/1930Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1425 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (18 Dec, 19 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Dec 070 Predicted 17 Dec-19 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 16 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 25/15/15
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Dec 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Only areas of plage remained on the solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 16-18 Dec.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from moderate to high levels reaching a peak flux of 1,270 pfu at 15/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 16 Dec due to weak CIR effects ahead of a CH HSS. Moderate to high levels are expected to return on 17-18 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were mostly between 300-350 km/s. Phi angle transitioned from the negative sector to variable after 16/0000 UTC.
.Forecast… A slightly enhanced solar wind environment is likely on 16-17 Dec due to weak negative polarity CH HSS effects. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to return on 18 Dec.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled conditions, with a chance of an isolated active period, on 16-17 Dec due to anticipated weak CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are expected on 18 Dec.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Dec 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 16-Dec 18 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 16-Dec 18 2018
Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 0 3 2 06-09UT 1 2 1 09-12UT 0 2 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 16-Dec 18 2018
Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 16-Dec 18 2018
Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Dec 16 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA350 UGEOA 20401 81216 0330/ 9930/ 10161 20163 30161 99999 UGEOE 20401 81216 0330/ 15/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81216 0330/ 15/// 10012 20710 3002/ 4///0 50000 61308 71704 80001 90010 99999 UGEOR 20401 81216 0330/ 15/24 16101 12731 20000 30000 41001 50010 60002 13513 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Dec 16 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 350 Issued at 0245Z on 16 Dec 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Dec A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 012 Afr/Ap 001/001 X-ray Background A1.2 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 2.4e+06 GT 10 MeV 1.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W129 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 7.60e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W129 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 Planetary 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 F. Comments: None.
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