NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Mar 19 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 19-Mar 21 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 19-Mar 21 2019
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 2 3 1 06-09UT 1 3 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 3 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2019
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 19-Mar 21 2019
Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar 21 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 77 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Mar, 20 Mar, 21 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 17/2142Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 18/0047Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 18/0111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 685 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (19 Mar, 21 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (20 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Mar 070 Predicted 19 Mar-21 Mar 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 18 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Mar 014/018 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Mar 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar 005/005-009/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Mar-21 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/10 Minor Storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 15/30/15
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Mar 18 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 18-Mar 20 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 18-Mar 20 2019
Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 1 2 3 06-09UT 1 1 3 09-12UT 2 1 2 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 2 1 3 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 18-Mar 20 2019
Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 18-Mar 20 2019
Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Mar 18 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Newly numbered Region 2735 (N03E23, Bxo/beta) exhibited most of its development in the leader spot while the trailer spot ended the period in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (18-20 Mar).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Mar and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a return to nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength decreased from a peak of 9 nT to at or below 5 nT after 18/0255 UTC. Bz was predominantly positive. Solar wind speeds declined from around 400 km/s to near 350 km/s by the period’s end. Phi angle transitioned from the positive sector to the negative sector over the last half of the reporting period.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are likely to continue at ambient levels on 18-19 Mar. On 20 Mar, enhanced conditions are anticipated due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field mostly quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (18-19 Mar). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (20 Mar) due to anticipated influence from a recurrent CH HSS.
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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #19-11 2019 March 17 at 9:35 p.m. MDT (2019 March 18 0335 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For March 11-17
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed on 17 Mar.
No other space weather storms were observed during the summary period.
Outlook For March 18-24
No space weather storms are expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Mar 18 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA077 UGEOA 20401 90318 0330/ 9930/ 10181 20181 30181 99999 UGEOE 20401 90318 0330/ 17/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90318 0330/ 17/// 10000 20690 3016/ 4///0 50000 61009 71604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90318 0330/ 17/24 18100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Mar 18 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 077 Issued at 0245Z on 18 Mar 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Mar A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 014/018 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Mar 18 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the next three days (18-20 Mar).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 18-20 Mar and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected mildly enhanced conditions. Wind speeds began the period at approximately 450 km/s and tapered to end of period values near 375 km/s. Total field reached 9 nT. The Bz component was negative between 17/000 UTC and 17/1430 UTC with a low value of -8 nT. Phi angle transitioned from negative to positive at 17/0506 UTC.
.Forecast… Slightly enhanced conditions are expected to continue on 18 Mar due to combined influence from a waning, non-recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS and possible CME effects from the 12 Mar event mentioned in previous discussion products. A return to ambient levels is anticipated on 19 Mar. On 20 Mar, enhanced conditions are anticipated due to influence from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated period of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming early in the period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Mar) due to waning CH HSS effects and potential influence from the aforementioned CME from 12 Mar. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated on day two (19 Mar). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (20 Mar) due to recurrent CH HSS influence.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Mar 18 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 18-Mar 20 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 18-Mar 20 2019
Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 2 2 3 06-09UT 2 1 3 09-12UT 2 1 2 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 2 1 3 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 18-Mar 20 2019
Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 18-Mar 20 2019
Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar 20 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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