Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Aug 03 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA216 UGEOA 20401 00803 0330/ 9930/ 10031 20031 30031 99999 UGEOE 20401 00803 0330/ 02/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00803 0330/ 02/// 10022 20730 3009/ 4///0 50000 63508 74704 80103 90060 99999 UGEOR 20401 00803 0330/ 02/24 03102 12767 20000 30000 47201 50050 60001 38522 00000 12769 20000 30000 41001 50010 60001 15326 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Aug 03 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 216 Issued at 0245Z on 03 Aug 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 02 Aug A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Field conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels due to positive polarity coronal hole influence. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 073 SSN 022 Afr/Ap 009/009 X-ray Background A3.4 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.0e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.30e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 2 2 3 4 2 2 3 Planetary 1 1 1 3 3 2 2 3 F. Comments: None
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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Aug 03 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 03-Aug 05 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 03-Aug 05 2020
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 00-03UT 3 3 2 03-06UT 2 2 1 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 1 1 2 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2020
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 03-Aug 05 2020
Aug 03 Aug 04 Aug 05 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Aug 03 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 216 Issued at 0030Z on 03 Aug 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 02 Aug I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2767 S22W85 197 0050 Hsx 02 01 Alpha 2769 N26E53 059 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 02/2400Z Aug Nmbr Location Lo 2768 N26W00 112 II. Regions Due to Return 03 Aug to 05 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Aug 03 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Region 2767 (S22W85, Hsx/alpha) was stable as it rotated towards the W limb. Region 2769 (N26E53, Axx/alpha) developed a trailer spot while its leader spot decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 03-05 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event threshold on 03-05 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, suggested the onset of a CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 12 nT at 02/1145 UTC while the Bz component reached as far south as -10 nT during the same time. Solar wind speeds steadily increased after 02/0427 UTC from 318 km/s to near 530 km/s by the period’s end. Phi was primarily oriented in the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on 03-05 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects persist.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under positive polarity CH HSS influence.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled levels on 03-04 Aug as CH HSS influence persists. Quiet conditions are likely on 05 Aug as nominal conditions return.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 215 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Aug 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (03 Aug, 04 Aug, 05 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 504 km/s at 02/2058Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 02/1145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 02/1146Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 197 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Aug, 04 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (05 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Aug 073 Predicted 03 Aug-05 Aug 073/071/071 90 Day Mean 02 Aug 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Aug 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Aug 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Aug-05 Aug 007/008-006/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Aug-05 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 25/25/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Aug 02 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 02-Aug 04 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 02-Aug 04 2020
Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 1 2 2 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 3 1 2 12-15UT 4 1 1 15-18UT 3 2 1 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 02 Aug followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 03-04 Aug due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 02-Aug 04 2020
Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 02-Aug 04 2020
Aug 02 Aug 03 Aug 04 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Aug 02 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2768 (N26E07) decayed to plage. New Region 2769 (N26E60, Axx/alpha) was numbered. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 02-04 Aug.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event threshold on 02-04 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels until 02/0427 UTC when an enhancement of the solar wind speed and total field was observed, likely due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field increased to 12 nT by 02/1142 UTC and the Bz component reached a max southward deflection of -10 nT. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 318 km/s to near 385 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be enhanced on 02-04 Aug as positive polarity CH HSS effects persist.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled to active conditions on 02 Aug with quiet to unsettled levels continuing through 04 Aug as CH HSS effects persist.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Aug 02 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA215 UGEOA 20401 00802 0330/ 9930/ 10021 21021 30021 99999 UGEOE 20401 00802 0330/ 01/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00802 0330/ 01/// 10022 20720 3003/ 4///0 50000 63308 74704 80002 90060 99999 UGEOR 20401 00802 0330/ 01/24 02102 12767 20000 30000 47201 50050 60001 37321 00000 12768 20000 30000 41001 50010 60001 11426 00000 99999 PLAIN S.I.D.C. BRUSSELS INTERNATIONAL PROVISIONAL MONTHLY MEAN SUNSPOT NUMBER RI FOR 2020 JULY IS 6.3 (SIX POINT THREE).
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