NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Jul 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 17-Jul 19 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 17-Jul 19 2018
Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 2 2 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 1 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 17-Jul 19 2018
Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 17-Jul 19 2018
Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Jul 17 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 198 Issued at 0030Z on 17 Jul 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Jul I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 16/2400Z Jul Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 17 Jul to 19 Jul Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Jul 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low with no numbered active regions present.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were nominal.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be nominal.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 197 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 364 km/s at 16/1947Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 16/2045Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 16/0538Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul, 19 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 16 Jul 072 Predicted 17 Jul-19 Jul 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 16 Jul 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jul 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jul 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Jul 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. An 8 degree long filament erupted along a NE-SW oriented channel centered at N15E44, first observed on GONG imagery at 16/0712 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (16-18 Jul).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels all three days (16-18 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels through about 16/0230 UTC when a SSBC from a positive to a negative orientation occurred. After the SSBC, total field increased from about 5-6 nT to a maximum of 10 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of near -8 nT. Wind speeds remained steady at an average of about 330 km/s throughout the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly enhanced for the remainder of day one (16 Jul) and nominal on days two and three (17-18 Jul).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS effects.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) due to influence from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. Days two and three (17-18 Jul) should be mostly quiet as CH HSS effects diminish.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Jul 16 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 16-Jul 18 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 16-Jul 18 2018
Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 2 2 2 06-09UT 3 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 16-Jul 18 2018
Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 16-Jul 18 2018
Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul 18 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Jul 16 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA197 UGEOA 20401 80716 0330/ 9930/ 10161 20161 30161 99999 UGEOE 20401 80716 0330/ 15/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80716 0330/ 15/// 10000 20720 3004/ 4///0 50000 63008 71904 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 80716 0330/ 15/24 16100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Jul 16 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 197 Issued at 0245Z on 16 Jul 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Jul A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 072 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/003 X-ray Background A2.9 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 5.8e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.9e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W136 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 5.90e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W136 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 Planetary 2 1 1 0 1 1 0 1 F. Comments: None.
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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #18-29 2018 July 15 at 7:58 p.m. MDT (2018 July 16 0158 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For July 9-15
No significant space weather was observed for the summary period.
Outlook For July 16-22
No significant space weather is expected for the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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