Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Dec 16 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 350 Issued at 0245Z on 16 Dec 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Dec A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 012 Afr/Ap 001/001 X-ray Background A1.2 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 2.4e+06 GT 10 MeV 1.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W129 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 7.60e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W129 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 Planetary 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 F. Comments: None.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Dec 16 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 350 Issued at 0030Z on 16 Dec 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 15 Dec I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2731 N13E35 024 0010 Axx 01 02 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 15/2400Z Dec Nmbr Location Lo 2730 N09W43 102 II. Regions Due to Return 16 Dec to 18 Dec Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Dec 16 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2731 (N13E35, Axx/alpha) produced a B1 flare at 15/1353 UTC, but was in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 16-18 Dec.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from moderate to high levels reaching a peak flux of 1,270 pfu at 15/1900 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 16 Dec due to weak CIR effects ahead of a CH HSS. Moderate to high levels are expected to return on 17-18 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed mostly between 300-350 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-5 nT while the Bz component was between +/-2 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… A slightly enhanced solar wind environment is likely on 16-17 Dec due to weak negative polarity CH HSS effects. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to return on 18 Dec.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to reach unsettled conditions, with a chance of an isolated active period, on 16-17 Dec due to anticipated weak CH HSS influence. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 18 Dec.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Dec 16 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 16-Dec 18 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 16-Dec 18 2018
Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 16-Dec 18 2018
Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 16-Dec 18 2018
Dec 16 Dec 17 Dec 18 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 349 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (16 Dec, 17 Dec, 18 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 15/1403Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1880 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (16 Dec, 17 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (18 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 15 Dec 071 Predicted 16 Dec-18 Dec 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 15 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 14 Dec 003/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Dec 002/002 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Dec-18 Dec 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Dec-18 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/15 Minor Storm 30/30/15 Major-severe storm 25/25/15
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Dec 15 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 15-Dec 17 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 15-Dec 17 2018
Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 00-03UT 1 3 2 03-06UT 0 2 3 06-09UT 0 2 2 09-12UT 0 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2018
Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 15-Dec 17 2018
Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec 17 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Dec 15 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. Region 2731 was mostly plage with a few fleeting pores by the end of the reporting period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 15-17 Dec.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from moderate to high levels reaching a peak flux of 2,387 pfu at 14/1920 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on 15 Dec, and moderate levels on 16 Dec due to weak CIR effects ahead of a CH HSS. Moderate to high levels are expected to return on 17 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected nominal conditions. Bt was at or below 5 nT and Bz was mostly positive. Solar wind speeds ranged between 300-390 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in the negative sector.
.Forecast… Nominal levels are expected for 15 Dec. A slightly enhanced solar wind environment is likely on 16-17 Dec due to weak negative polarity CH HSS effects.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 15 Dec. Unsettled conditions, with a chance of an isolated active period, are likely on 16-17 Dec due to anticipated, weak CH HSS influence.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Dec 15 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA349 UGEOA 20401 81215 0330/ 9930/ 10151 20153 30151 99999 UGEOE 20401 81215 0330/ 14/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81215 0330/ 14/// 10012 20710 3003/ 4///0 50000 61208 71704 80101 90010 99999 UGEOR 20401 81215 0330/ 14/24 15101 12731 20000 30000 42012 50010 60002 14913 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Dec 15 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 349 Issued at 0245Z on 15 Dec 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Dec A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 012 Afr/Ap 003/001 X-ray Background A1.1 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 2.9e+06 GT 10 MeV 1.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W129 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.00e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W129 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 1 Planetary 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 F. Comments: None.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Dec 15 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 349 Issued at 0030Z on 15 Dec 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 14 Dec I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2731 N13E49 023 0010 Bxo 05 02 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 14/2400Z Dec Nmbr Location Lo 2730 N09W29 101 II. Regions Due to Return 15 Dec to 17 Dec Nmbr Lat Lo None
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