Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2797 (S18E22, Hax/alpha) was stable and inactive. Region 2798 (S16E34, Cao/beta) produced numerous B-class flares, but was otherwise stable. A filament eruption in the SE quadrant, observed between about 20/2000-2100 UTC resulted in a slow-moving CME off the ESE limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at about 20/2124 UTC. Analysis, and subsequent model run output, suggested there was no Earth-directed component.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a chance for C-class activity, on 22-24 Jan.
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-2 nT. Wind speed averaged around 310 km/s. Phi began the period in a negative orientation, but became variable after about 21/1520 UTC.
.Forecast… A nominal solar wind environment is expected for the next three days (22-24 Jan).
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated through for 22-24 Jan.
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