NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Sep 20 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 20-Sep 22 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 20-Sep 22 2018
Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 00-03UT 2 1 2 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 1 1 3 12-15UT 2 1 3 15-18UT 1 1 3 18-21UT 2 2 4 21-00UT 1 2 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 20-Sep 22 2018
Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 20-Sep 22 2018
Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 262 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Sep, 21 Sep, 22 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 503 km/s at 19/0145Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8464 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (20 Sep, 21 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Sep 068 Predicted 20 Sep-22 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 19 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Sep 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Sep 007/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Sep-22 Sep 005/005-005/005-013/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Sep-22 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/35 Minor Storm 01/01/15 Major-severe storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/50
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Sep 19 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 19-Sep 21 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 19-Sep 21 2018
Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 00-03UT 1 2 1 03-06UT 3 1 1 06-09UT 2 1 2 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 1 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2018
Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2018
Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Sep 19 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no numbered regions and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 19-21 Sep.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 7,840 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 19-21 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The total field remained steady between 3 and 5 nT throughout the period, while Bz varied between +/- 3 nT. Solar wind speeds have continued to decline this period from 500 km/s to near 450 km/s. The phi angle was predominately negative with a brief transitions into positive.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue a downward trend to ambient conditions for 19-21 Sep under a nominal solar wind regime.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet with isolated periods of unsettled for 19-21 Sep.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Sep 19 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA262 UGEOA 20401 80919 0330/ 9930/ 10191 20191 30191 99999 UGEOE 20401 80919 0330/ 18/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80919 0330/ 18/// 10000 20680 3006/ 4///0 50000 61009 71704 80001 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 80919 0330/ 18/24 19100 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Sep 19 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 262 Issued at 0245Z on 19 Sep 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 18 Sep A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled (using NOAA planetary indices). D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 005/??? X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Sep 19 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 19-Sep 21 2018 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 19-Sep 21 2018
Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 00-03UT 2 2 1 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 2 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 1 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2018
Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 19-Sep 21 2018
Sep 19 Sep 20 Sep 21 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Sep 19 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 262 Issued at 0030Z on 19 Sep 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 18 Sep I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z Sep Nmbr Location Lo 2722 S07W84 224 II. Regions Due to Return 19 Sep to 21 Sep Nmbr Lat Lo None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Sep 19 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no numbered regions and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 19-21 Sep.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 7,840 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 19-21 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… A CH HSS (recurrent, negative polarity) was affecting Earth. Field strength gradually settled out to around 4 nT by the end of the day, while Bz varied between +/- 5 nT. Solar wind speeds remained steady at just above 530 km/s before gradually beginning to taper off near 490 km/s at the end of the period. The phi angle was negative with the onset and ongoing influence of the CH HSS.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at ambient conditions for 19-21 Sep under a nominal solar wind regime.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under a waning negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for 19-21 Sep.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 261 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 561 km/s at 17/2218Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 18/1112Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 18/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 10052 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Sep, 20 Sep, 21 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 18 Sep 068 Predicted 19 Sep-21 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 18 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 17 Sep 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 006/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Sep-21 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.