Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Jan 22 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA022 UGEOA 20401 10122 0330/ 9930/ 10221 20221 30221 99999 UGEOE 20401 10122 0330/ 21/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10122 0330/ 21/// 10026 20780 3002/ 4///0 50000 65708 74504 80003 90110 99999 UGEOR 20401 10122 0330/ 21/24 22102 12797 20000 30000 47301 50070 60002 22218 00000 12798 20000 30400 43312 50040 60004 23416 02000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Jan 22 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 022 Issued at 0245Z on 22 Jan 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 078 SSN 026 Afr/Ap 002/001 X-ray Background A5.7 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 8.5e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.20e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 Planetary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 F. Comments: None
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Jan 22 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 22 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Jan 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2797 S18E22 341 0070 Hax 02 02 Alpha 2798 S16E34 329 0040 Cao 07 04 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo 2796 S21W88 092 II. Regions Due to Return 22 Jan to 24 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 22-Jan 24 2021 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 22-Jan 24 2021
Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 2 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2021
Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2021
Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2797 (S18E22, Hax/alpha) was stable and inactive. Region 2798 (S16E34, Cao/beta) produced numerous B-class flares, but was otherwise stable. A filament eruption in the SE quadrant, observed between about 20/2000-2100 UTC resulted in a slow-moving CME off the ESE limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at about 20/2124 UTC. Analysis, and subsequent model run output, suggested there was no Earth-directed component.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a chance for C-class activity, on 22-24 Jan.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-2 nT. Wind speed averaged around 310 km/s. Phi began the period in a negative orientation, but became variable after about 21/1520 UTC.
.Forecast… A nominal solar wind environment is expected for the next three days (22-24 Jan).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated through for 22-24 Jan.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 21 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 20/2258Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 21/0948Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jan, 23 Jan, 24 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Jan 078 Predicted 22 Jan-24 Jan 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 21 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jan 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jan-24 Jan 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jan-24 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 21-Jan 23 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 21-Jan 23 2021
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 00-03UT 0 4 2 03-06UT 1 3 3 06-09UT 0 3 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 1 2 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 4 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2021
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 21-Jan 23 2021
Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2797 (S18E37, Hsx/alpha) was inactive and stable. Region 2798 (S17E46, Cao/beta) produced a C1/Sf flare at 20/1253 UTC, in addition to several B-level enhancements. There were CMEs off the east and west limbs; none of which are expected to have an Earth-directed component.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a chance for a C-class flare, on 21-23 Jan.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 21-22 Jan. Moderate to high levels are expected by 23 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at or near background levels. Total magnetic field strength averaged around 5 nT, and the Bz component underwent only minor deviations. Wind speed settled around 325 km/s by the end of the UTC day. Phi continued to bounce between positive and negative solar orientations.
.Forecast… A positive polarity CH HSS is still anticipated for 21 Jan although confidence is waning based on recent trends in solar wind data.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Unsettled and active levels are likely if a positive polarity CH HSS originating from the northern crown connects with Earth on 21 Jan. Otherwise mostly quiet conditions can be anticipated through 23 Jan.
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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Jan 21 0414 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 021 Issued at 0245Z on 21 Jan 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 077 SSN 025 Afr/Ap 005/005 X-ray Background A3.7 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.4e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.60e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 2 2 3 2 1 1 Planetary 0 0 2 1 2 2 1 1 F. Comments: None.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Jan 21 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA021 UGEOA 20401 10121 0330/ 0000/ 10211 21211 30211 99999 UGEOE 20401 10121 0330/ 20/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10121 0330/ 20/// 10025 20770 3006/ 4///0 50000 63808 74504 80103 90110 99999 UGEOR 20401 10121 0330/ 20/24 21102 12797 20000 30000 47201 50050 60002 23718 00000 12798 20000 30200 43312 50060 60003 24617 02000 99999

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