3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2016 Dec 31 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 31-Jan 02 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 31-Jan 02 2017
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 00-03UT 1 5 (G1) 3 03-06UT 2 4 2 06-09UT 2 3 2 09-12UT 3 3 3 12-15UT 4 3 2 15-18UT 4 3 2 18-21UT 4 3 3 21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 2
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on days one (31 Dec) and two (01 Jan) due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2017
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2017
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2016 Dec 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 366 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Dec 2016 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Dec I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2622 N12W59 196 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Dec Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Dec to 02 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2016 Dec 31 1815 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 December follow. Solar flux 74 and estimated planetary A-index 4. The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 31 December was 3.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.

3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2016 Dec 31 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 31-Jan 02 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 31-Jan 02 2017
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 00-03UT 2 4 3 03-06UT 2 4 2 06-09UT 3 3 2 09-12UT 3 3 3 12-15UT 3 3 2 15-18UT 4 3 2 18-21UT 4 3 3 21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 2
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS on day one (31 Dec).
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2017
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2017
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2016 Dec 31 0605 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 December follow. Solar flux 74 and estimated planetary A-index 4. The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 31 December was 2.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2016 Dec 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 366 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Dec 2016 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Dec I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2622 N12W59 196 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Dec Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Dec to 02 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None

3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2016 Dec 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 30-Jan 01 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 30-Jan 01 2017
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 00-03UT 1 4 4 03-06UT 2 3 4 06-09UT 0 3 3 09-12UT 1 3 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 3 4 3 18-21UT 3 5 (G1) 3 21-00UT 4 5 (G1) 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day two (31 Dec) due to the onset of an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2017
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2017
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2016 Dec 30 1805 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 29 December follow. Solar flux 73 and estimated planetary A-index 5. The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 30 December was 1.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2016 Dec 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 365 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Dec 2016 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Dec I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Dec Nmbr Location Lo 2621 N10W88 238 II. Regions Due to Return 30 Dec to 01 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None

3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2016 Dec 30 0031 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 30-Jan 01 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 30-Jan 01 2017
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 00-03UT 2 4 4 03-06UT 2 3 4 06-09UT 1 3 3 09-12UT 1 3 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 3 4 3 18-21UT 3 5 (G1) 3 21-00UT 4 5 (G1) 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day two (31 Dec) due to the onset of an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2017
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2017
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.