3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Jan 31 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2017
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 00-03UT 3 5 (G1) 3 03-06UT 3 4 4 06-09UT 3 3 3 09-12UT 4 3 3 12-15UT 3 3 3 15-18UT 4 3 3 18-21UT 4 3 3 21-00UT 5 (G1) 4 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on days one and two (31 Jan – 01 Feb) due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2017
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2017
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2017 Jan 31 1805 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 January follow. Solar flux 77 and estimated planetary A-index 6. The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 31 January was 4.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2017 Jan 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 31 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jan 2017 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2629 N15W22 111 0060 Hsx 03 01 Alpha 2630 N16E54 035 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha 2631 S04W24 113 0010 Bxo 02 03 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Jan to 02 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None

3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Jan 31 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2017
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 00-03UT 3 5 (G1) 3 03-06UT 3 4 4 06-09UT 3 3 3 09-12UT 4 3 3 12-15UT 3 3 3 15-18UT 5 (G1) 3 3 18-21UT 4 3 3 21-00UT 5 (G1) 4 3
Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are expected on days one and two (31 Jan – 01 Feb) due to CH HSS activity.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2017
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2017
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2017 Jan 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 31 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jan 2017 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2629 N15W22 111 0060 Hsx 03 01 Alpha 2630 N16E54 035 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha 2631 S04W24 113 0010 Bxo 02 03 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Jan to 02 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2017 Jan 31 0610 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 30 January follow. Solar flux 77 and estimated planetary A-index 6. The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 31 January was 3.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.

3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Jan 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 30-Feb 01 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 30-Feb 01 2017
Jan 30 Jan 31 Feb 01 00-03UT 1 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 03-06UT 1 5 (G1) 4 06-09UT 1 4 3 09-12UT 1 3 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 2 3 3 18-21UT 3 3 3 21-00UT 4 4 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on days two and three (Jan 31 and Feb 01) due to the anticipated arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2017
Jan 30 Jan 31 Feb 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2017
Jan 30 Jan 31 Feb 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2017 Jan 30 1805 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 29 January follow. Solar flux 77 and estimated planetary A-index 7. The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 30 January was 2.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor. Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2017 Jan 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 30 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Jan 2017 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2628 N11W79 181 0110 Hsx 02 01 Alpha 2629 N15W10 112 0120 Cso 06 03 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Jan to 01 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2017 Jan 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 30 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Jan 2017 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2628 N11W79 181 0110 Hsx 02 01 Alpha 2629 N15W10 112 0120 Cso 06 03 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Jan to 01 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None