Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #17-9 2017 February 26 at 5:52 p.m. MST (2017 February 27 0052 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For February 20-26
No significant space weather was observed during the summary period.
Outlook For February 27-March 5
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 01-02 March due to effects from a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream.
No other significant space weather is expected during the outlook period.
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3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Feb 21 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2017
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 00-03UT 2 3 5 (G1) 03-06UT 2 3 4 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 0 2 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 2 3 3 18-21UT 3 4 3 21-00UT 3 4 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day three (23 Feb) due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2017 Feb 21 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 52 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Feb 2017 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2637 S04E47 125 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha 2638 N18E58 114 0080 Dao 10 04 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo 2636 N11W13 185 II. Regions Due to Return 21 Feb to 23 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2017 Feb 21 1805 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 20 February follow. Solar flux 81 and estimated planetary A-index 10. The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 21 February was 1.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Feb 21 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2017
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 00-03UT 3 3 5 (G1) 03-06UT 3 3 4 06-09UT 2 2 3 09-12UT 2 2 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 2 3 3 18-21UT 3 4 3 21-00UT 3 4 4
Rationale: An isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming is likely on day three (23 Feb), under the enhanced conditions of the CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017
Feb 21 Feb 22 Feb 23 R1-R2 5% 5% 5% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2017 Feb 21 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 52 Issued at 0030Z on 21 Feb 2017 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 20 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2637 S04E47 125 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha 2638 N18E58 114 0080 Dao 10 04 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 20/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo 2636 N11W13 185 II. Regions Due to Return 21 Feb to 23 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2017 Feb 21 0605 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 20 February follow. Solar flux 81 and estimated planetary A-index 10. The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 21 February was 2.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Feb 20 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 20-Feb 22 2017
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 3 3 2 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 3 3 2 15-18UT 3 3 2 18-21UT 2 3 4 21-00UT 3 2 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2017 Feb 20 1805 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 19 February follow. Solar flux 78 and estimated planetary A-index 10. The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 20 February was 3.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.