Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2017 Feb 20 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 51 Issued at 0030Z on 20 Feb 2017 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2636 N11E01 184 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha 2637 S03E61 124 0020 Axx 01 02 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 20 Feb to 22 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2017 Feb 20 0605 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 19 February follow. Solar flux 78 and estimated planetary A-index 10. The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 20 February was 3.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Feb 20 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 20-Feb 22 2017
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22 00-03UT 3 3 3 03-06UT 3 3 2 06-09UT 3 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 3 2 15-18UT 2 3 2 18-21UT 2 3 4 21-00UT 2 2 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 20-Feb 22 2017
Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb 22 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2017 Feb 20 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 51 Issued at 0030Z on 20 Feb 2017 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 19 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2636 N11E01 184 0010 Axx 00 01 Alpha 2637 S03E61 124 0020 Axx 01 02 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 19/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 20 Feb to 22 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None

Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #17-8 2017 February 19 at 7:00 p.m. MST (2017 February 20 0200 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For February 13-19
No significant space weather was observed.
Outlook For February 20-26
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on 24 Feb due to effects from a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream.
No other siginificant space weather is expected.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Feb 19 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 19-Feb 21 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 19-Feb 21 2017
Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 21 00-03UT 3 3 3 03-06UT 3 3 3 06-09UT 2 3 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 4 2 3 15-18UT 3 2 3 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 19-Feb 21 2017
Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 19-Feb 21 2017
Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 21 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Solar Region Summary

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2017 Feb 19 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 50 Issued at 0030Z on 19 Feb 2017 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 18 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2636 N11E15 183 0020 Bxo 02 03 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 18/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 19 Feb to 21 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo 2632 N16 104

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2017 Feb 19 1805 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 February follow. Solar flux 77 and estimated planetary A-index 16. The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 19 February was 3.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Feb 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 19-Feb 21 2017 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 19-Feb 21 2017
Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 21 00-03UT 4 3 3 03-06UT 4 3 3 06-09UT 4 3 2 09-12UT 3 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 3 15-18UT 2 2 3 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 19-Feb 21 2017
Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 21 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 19-Feb 21 2017
Feb 19 Feb 20 Feb 21 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Geophysical Alert

:Product: Geophysical Alert Message wwv.txt :Issued: 2017 Feb 19 0605 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # # Geophysical Alert Message # Solar-terrestrial indices for 18 February follow. Solar flux 77 and estimated planetary A-index 16. The estimated planetary K-index at 0600 UTC on 19 February was 3.
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.