Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 31/1537Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 31/1346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1734Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1884 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jul 069 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 069/068/068 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/20
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Jul 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2018 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2018
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 00-03UT 2 1 2 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2018
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2018
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Jul 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (31 Jul-2 Aug).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels all three days (31 Jul-2 Aug) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were consistent with a nominal solar wind. Total field strength ranged from 3 to 9 nT. The Bz component underwent weak deviations. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 275-325 km/s. The phi angle switched to a positive orientation near 31/0300Z.
.Forecast… A slow solar wind regime is expected to continue the next three days (31 Jul-2 Aug).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet the next three days (31 Jul-2 Aug).
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Jul 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA212 UGEOA 20401 80731 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 80731 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80731 0330/ 30/// 10000 20680 3005/ 4///0 50000 67309 71804 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 80731 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Jul 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 212 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Jul 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jul A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 005/004 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Jul 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 212 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jul 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jul I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Jul Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Jul to 02 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Jul 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2018 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2018
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 00-03UT 1 1 2 03-06UT 2 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2018
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2018
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Jul 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. An active region (S09E58) rotated further into view; visible as primarily an area of faculae. A small spot was observed by a pair of USAF optical observatories, however, we await one additional report of a still existent spot before assigning it as a NOAA/SWPC numbered region. No CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (31 Jul-2 Aug).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels all three days (31 Jul-2 Aug) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow regime. Total IMF strength ranged from 3 to 9 nT, as the total field experienced a few slight enhancements. The Bz component underwent primarily weak deviations, but turned southward later in the period. Solar wind speed ranged primarily from 275-325 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.
.Forecast… A slow solar wind regime is expected to continue the next three days (31 Jul-2 Aug).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet the next three days (31 Jul-2 Aug).
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 332 km/s at 30/1941Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/1941Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2927 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jul 068 Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/15/15
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Jul 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 30-Aug 01 2018 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 30-Aug 01 2018
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 00-03UT 1 1 1 03-06UT 1 2 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2018
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2018
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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