Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Jul 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (30 Jul-01 Aug).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 3,180 pfu observed at 29/2035 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (30-31 Jul) and decrease to moderate levels on day three (01 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected mostly nominal conditions. A slight enhancement in total magnetic field strength to a peak of 7 nT was observed after 29/1920 UTC. Wind speeds remained slow, ranging from 272-335 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the negative sector.
.Forecast… A nominal solar wind environment is expected to persist over the next three days (30 Jul-01 Aug).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the forecast period (30 Jul-01 Aug).
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Jul 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA211 UGEOA 20401 80730 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20301 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 80730 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80730 0330/ 29/// 10000 20680 3005/ 4///0 50000 64809 71904 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 80730 0330/ 29/24 30100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Jul 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 211 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Jul 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jul A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 005/004 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #18-31 2018 July 29 at 6:31 p.m. MDT (2018 July 30 0031 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For July 23-29
No space weather storms were observed during the summary period.
Outlook For July 30-August 5
No space weather storms are expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Jul 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 30-Aug 01 2018 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 30-Aug 01 2018
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 00-03UT 1 1 1 03-06UT 1 2 1 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2018
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2018
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Jul 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (30 Jul-01 Aug).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum flux of 3,180 pfu observed at 29/2035 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (30-31 Jul) and decrease to moderate levels on day three (01 Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were nominal with solar wind speed ranging from 293-375 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-6 nT while the Bz component was between +2/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly negative (towards) sector.
.Forecast… A nominal solar wind environment is expected to persist over the next three days (30 Jul-01 Aug).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the forecast period (30 Jul-01 Aug).
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Jul 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 211 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Jul 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jul I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Jul Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Jul to 01 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 379 km/s at 28/2325Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3180 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Jul 068 Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 005/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/20
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Jul 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 29-Jul 31 2018 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 29-Jul 31 2018
Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 00-03UT 2 1 1 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 2 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 1 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 29-Jul 31 2018
Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 29-Jul 31 2018
Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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