Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 31/0755Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 61000 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Aug 068 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/15/25 Major-severe storm 15/10/25
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Aug 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2018 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2018
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 2 2 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2018
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2018
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Aug 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No spots were observed on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low for the forecast period (31 Aug – 2 Sep).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels, with a peak flux of 61,000 pfu observed at 30/2240 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at high to very high levels on all three days of the period (31 Aug – 02 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds remained steady fluctuating between 360 – 400 km/s. Total field was steady near 3 nT in the beginning of the period, rising to 6 nT later in the UTC-day. The Bz component fluctuated between +/- 2 nT. The Phi angle was predominately negative until near 31/0500Z, when a switch to a positive orientation was observed.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect background conditions under a nominal solar wind regime throughout the forecast period (31 Aug – 2 Sep).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet all three days of the forecast period (31 Aug – 2 Sep).
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Aug 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA243 UGEOA 20401 80831 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 80831 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80831 0330/ 30/// 10000 20680 3004/ 4///0 50000 61308 71704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 80831 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Aug 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 243 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Aug 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Aug A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 005/004 X-ray Background A1.2 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 2.1e+06 GT 10 MeV 1.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W134 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 3.20e+09 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W134 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 Planetary 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 F. Comments: The GT 2 MeV electron fluence reached very high levels.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Aug 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2018 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2018
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 2 2 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2018
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2018
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Aug 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No spots were observed on the visible disk. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low for the forecast period (31 Aug – 2 Sep).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels, with a peak flux of 61,000 pfu observed at 30/2240 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at very high levels on day one (31 Aug), and at high levels on days two and three (1 Sep – 2 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind environment. Solar wind speeds decreased unsteadily from near 500 km/s to settle around 400 km/s later in the period. Total field was steady near 3 nT most of the period, with a brief rise to 5 nT later in the UTC-day. The Bz component fluctuated between +/- 2 nT. The Phi angle was positive until approximately 30/0800 UTC when it oscillated between sectors, before settling in a negative sector to end the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect background conditions under a nominal solar wind regime throughout the forecast period (31 Aug – 2 Sep).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet all three days of the forecast period (31 Aug – 2 Sep).
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Aug 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 243 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Aug 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Aug I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Aug Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Aug to 02 Sep Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 517 km/s at 29/2128Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 30/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 56173 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Aug, 01 Sep, 02 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Aug 068 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug-02 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-severe storm 20/15/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Aug 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No spots were observed on the visible disk. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low for the forecast period (30 Aug – 1 Sep).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached very high levels, with a peak flux of 57,922 pfu observed at 29/1945 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at very high levels on day one (30 Aug), and decrease to high levels for days two and three (31 Aug – 1 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained slightly enhanced during the period. Solar wind speeds began the period near 530 km/s and steadily decreased to near 440 km/s by the end of the period. Total field averaged around 3 nT, Bz was variable between +/- 2 nT, and the Phi angle was mostly positive, with brief isolated oscillations into the negative sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind speeds are expected to undergo minor enhancements due to potential weak influence of a negative polarity CH HSS on days one through three (30 Aug – 01 Sep).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels all three days of the forecast period (30 Aug – 1 Sep).
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