Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (01 Oct) and expected to be very low on days two and three (02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 505 km/s at 30/0158Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/2249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1727Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 893 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (03 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Sep 068 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 009/012-009/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/10 Minor Storm 10/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/15 Minor Storm 20/25/20 Major-severe storm 40/25/15
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Sep 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 30-Oct 02 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 30-Oct 02 2018
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 00-03UT 1 1 3 03-06UT 3 2 3 06-09UT 0 3 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 3 2 18-21UT 2 3 2 21-00UT 1 4 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2018
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2018
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Sep 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. New Region 2723 (S08W09, Dao/beta) emerged on the disk this period. Since its emergence midday on the 29th, the region developed leader and trailer penumbra and lengthened along its E/W axis, but remained quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class activity all three days (30 Sep – 02 Oct).
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels during the period with a peak flux of 797 pfu observed at 29/2245 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… Normal to moderate levels are expected during the three day forecast period (30 Sep – 02 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated above background levels. Solar wind speeds trended upward throughout the the first half of the period from around 400 km/s to a peak of near 500 km/s at about 30/0200 UTC. The period ended with wind speeds near 425 km/s. Total field ranged between 2-8 nT while the Bz component varied between +5 to -4 nT. The phi angle was oriented in a mostly positive sector with intermittent negative sector excursions.
Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at slightly enhanced levels on 30 Sep due to weak influence from the polar north extension, positive polarity CH HSS. Weak enhancements are expected to continue through days two and three (01-02 Oct).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated unsettled levels on 30 Sep and quiet to active levels on 01 Oct with periodic effects from the north polar, positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are forecast on 02 Oct as CH HSS influence wanes.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Sep 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA273 UGEOA 20401 80930 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20301 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 80930 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 80930 0330/ 29/// 10013 20690 3010/ 4///0 50000 61009 71704 80101 90010 99999 UGEOR 20401 80930 0330/ 29/24 30101 12723 20000 30000 42012 50010 60003 30108 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Sep 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 273 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Sep 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Sep A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 013 Afr/Ap 009/009 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Sep 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 30-Oct 02 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 30-Oct 02 2018
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 00-03UT 3 1 3 03-06UT 3 2 3 06-09UT 2 3 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 3 2 18-21UT 2 3 2 21-00UT 1 4 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01 Oct due to possible connections with the northern polar crown CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2018
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2018
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Sep 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2723 (S08W01, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period, but was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels 30 Sep – 02 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels during the period with a peak flux of 824 pfu observed at 29/0010 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Sep – 02 Oct, with a chance of high levels being reached. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated above background levels. Solar wind speeds trended upward throughout the period from around 375 km/s to near 480 km/s. Total field ranged between 3-8 nT, while the Bz component varied between +5 to -7 nT. The phi angle was mostly positive with the exception of a two to three hour window starting around 0600 UTC.
Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to be slightly enhanced on 30 Sep. Further enhancements in the solar wind are possible 01-02 Oct with intermittent effects from the polar north CH HSS (positive polarity).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 30 Sep and at quiet to active levels on 01 Oct with periodic effects from the northern polar CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled levels are forecast on 02 Oct.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Sep 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 273 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Sep 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Sep I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2723 S08W01 355 0010 Bxo 01 03 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Sep Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Sep to 02 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 29/2042Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 29/0249Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/0522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1591 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Sep 069 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 006/005-009/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/35/25 Minor Storm 01/20/15 Major-severe storm 01/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 15/55/45
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Sep 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 29-Oct 01 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 29-Oct 01 2018
Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01 00-03UT 2 2 1 03-06UT 3 2 2 06-09UT 2 1 3 09-12UT 2 1 2 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 3 18-21UT 1 2 3 21-00UT 2 1 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2018
Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2018
Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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