Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 360 km/s at 31/2007Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2333Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/1331Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Nov, 02 Nov) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Oct 068 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 005/005-006/005-016/023
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/35 Minor Storm 01/05/20 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/15/45
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 31-Nov 02 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 31-Nov 02 2018
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 0 2 2 06-09UT 0 2 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 3 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2018
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2018
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. There were no sunspots, and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low 31 Oct-2 Nov.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Oct-2 Nov, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind environment was at nominal levels.
.Forecast… A negative polarity CH HSS is possible on 31 Oct. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 1-2 Nov with a return to background levels.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast…
Quiet to unsettled levels are possible on 31 Oct with a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 1-2 Nov as CH HSS (negative polarity) effects diminish.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Oct 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA304 UGEOA 20401 81031 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 81031 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81031 0330/ 30/// 10000 20670 3004/ 4///0 50000 64809 71604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 81031 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 304 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Oct 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 067 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/003 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 31-Nov 02 2018 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 31-Nov 02 2018
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 3 2 2 06-09UT 3 2 1 09-12UT 3 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 1 2 21-00UT 2 2 1
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2018
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2018
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low. There were no sunspots, and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low 31 Oct-2 Nov.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Oct-2 Nov, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind environment was at background levels.
.Forecast… A negative polarity CH HSS is possible on 31 Oct. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 1-2 Nov with a return to background levels.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast…
Quiet to unsettled levels are possible on 31 Oct with a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 1-2 Nov as CH HSS (negative polarity) effects diminish.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 304 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Oct 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Oct to 02 Nov Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 330 km/s at 29/2222Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/1813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/0055Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Oct) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Oct 067 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 001/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 009/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/10/15
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 30-Nov 01 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 30-Nov 01 2018
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 00-03UT 2 3 2 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 1 3 2 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 3 2 1 21-00UT 4 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2018
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2018
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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