Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Oct-1 Nov.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Oct-1 Nov, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected nominal background conditions.
.Forecast… A weak enhancement in solar wind parameters is anticipated early on 30 Oct from a SSBC. An additional enhancement is expected later in the day, due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are likely to continue on 31 Oct as CH HSS influence persists. Conditions should begin to settle down on 1 Nov as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast…
Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 30-31 Oct, with isolated active levels possible on 30 Oct, due to the anticipated influence of a SSBC followed by a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 1 Nov as influence from the CH HSS subsides.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Oct 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA303 UGEOA 20401 81030 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20301 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 81030 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81030 0330/ 29/// 10000 20690 3003/ 4///0 50000 64009 71704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 81030 0330/ 29/24 30100 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 303 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Oct 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 001/001 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 30-Nov 01 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 30-Nov 01 2018
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 00-03UT 2 3 2 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 1 3 2 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 3 2 1 15-18UT 3 2 1 18-21UT 3 2 1 21-00UT 4 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2018
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2018
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Oct-1 Nov.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Oct-1 Nov, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected nominal background conditions.
.Forecast… A weak enhancement in solar wind parameters is anticipated early on 30 Oct from a SSBC. An additional enhancement is expected later in the day, due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are likely to continue on 31 Oct as CH HSS influence persists. Conditions should begin to settle down on 1 Nov as the CH HSS moves out of a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast…
Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 30-31 Oct, with isolated active levels possible on 30 Oct, due to the anticipated influence of a SSBC followed by a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 1 Nov as influence from the CH HSS subsides.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Oct 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 303 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Oct 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Oct to 01 Nov Nmbr Lat Lo None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 302 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Oct, 31 Oct, 01 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 340 km/s at 29/2050Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/0829Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 29/2016Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (30 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (31 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (01 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Oct 069 Predicted 30 Oct-01 Nov 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 29 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Oct 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Oct 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Oct-01 Nov 009/012-009/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Oct-01 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/15 Major-severe storm 20/30/05
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Oct 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 29-31 Oct.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 29-31 Oct and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected nominal background conditions.
.Forecast… A weak enhancement in total field (Bt) is anticipated on 29 Oct from a SSBC. An additional enhancement in Bt and solar wind speed is expected on 30-31 Oct due to influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 29-31 Oct, with isolated active levels possible on 30-31 Oct, due to the anticipated influence of a SSBC followed by a negative polarity CH HSS.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Oct 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 29-Oct 31 2018 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 29-Oct 31 2018
Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 1 2 4 06-09UT 1 1 3 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 2 4 2 15-18UT 2 3 2 18-21UT 3 3 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 29-Oct 31 2018
Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 29-Oct 31 2018
Oct 29 Oct 30 Oct 31 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #18-44 2018 October 28 at 10:34 p.m. MDT (2018 October 29 0434 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For October 22-28
No space weather storms were observed.
Outlook For October 29-November 4
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 03 November due to recurrent coronal hole high speed stream effects.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.