Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 386 km/s at 30/0153Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Dec), unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (02 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Nov 068 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 019/024-021/028-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 45/45/25 Minor Storm 25/25/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 70/70/40
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Nov 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 30-Dec 02 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 30-Dec 02 2018
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 00-03UT 1 2 5 (G1) 03-06UT 0 2 5 (G1) 06-09UT 0 3 4 09-12UT 1 3 4 12-15UT 1 4 4 15-18UT 1 5 (G1) 3 18-21UT 1 5 (G1) 3 21-00UT 2 4 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 01-02 Dec due to the anticipated influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2018
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2018
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Nov 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. GONG and SDO AIA/304 imagery observed a 17 degree long filament eruption along a channel centered near S56W09. The filament erupted between 30/0214-0603 UTC. Limited LASCO imagery detected a pair of slow-moving CMEs, the first one off the SW limb, first visible at about 30/0636 UTC and the second one off the SSW limb, first visible at about 30/0736 UTC. Analysis of these CMEs will be conducted as more imagery becomes available. No additional CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on days one through three (30 Nov-02 Dec).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal background levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (30 Nov-01 Dec) and high levels on day three (02 Dec) in response to elevated wind speeds associated with CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected ambient background conditions.
.Forecast… Background conditions are expected to prevail throughout the remainder of day one (30 Nov) and into day two (01 Dec). Late on day two, enhanced solar wind conditions are expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are expected to persist on day three (02 Dec).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the remainder of day one (30 Nov) under a nominal solar wind regime. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on days two and three (01-02 Dec) due to influence from recurrent CH HSS activity.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Nov 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA334 UGEOA 20401 81130 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20301 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 81130 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81130 0330/ 29/// 10000 20680 3003/ 4///0 50000 68309 71704 80001 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 81130 0330/ 29/24 30100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Nov 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 334 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Nov 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Nov A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/001 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Nov 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 30-Dec 02 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 30-Dec 02 2018
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 00-03UT 2 2 5 (G1) 03-06UT 1 2 5 (G1) 06-09UT 1 3 4 09-12UT 1 3 4 12-15UT 1 4 4 15-18UT 1 5 (G1) 3 18-21UT 1 5 (G1) 3 21-00UT 2 4 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely on 01-02 Dec due to the anticipated influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2018
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2018
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Nov 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on days one through three (30 Nov-02 Dec).
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (30 Nov-01 Dec) and high levels on day three (02 Dec) in response to elevated wind speeds associated with CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected ambient background conditions.
.Forecast… Background conditions are expected to prevail throughout day one (30 Nov) and into day two (01 Dec). Late on day two, enhanced solar wind conditions are expected due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS. Enhanced conditions are expected to persist on day three (02 Dec).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (30 Nov) under a nominal solar wind regime. G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely on days two and three (01-02 Dec) due to influence from recurrent CH HSS activity.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Nov 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 334 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Nov 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Nov I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nov Nmbr Location Lo 2728 N06W75 345 II. Regions Due to Return 30 Nov to 02 Dec Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 29/1633Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Nov), quiet to minor storm levels on day two (01 Dec) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Nov 068 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 005/005-019/024-021/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/45/45 Minor Storm 01/25/25 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/70/70
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Nov 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 29-Dec 01 2018
Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 0 2 3 06-09UT 0 1 5 (G1) 09-12UT 0 1 5 (G1) 12-15UT 1 1 4 15-18UT 1 1 4 18-21UT 2 1 3 21-00UT 2 2 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day three (01 Dec) due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 29-Dec 01 2018
Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 29-Dec 01 2018
Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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