Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 30/2100Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/1005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/1006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3751 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Dec 069 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Dec 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 31-Jan 02 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 31-Jan 02 2019
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 2 2 1 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2019
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2019
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Dec 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels over 31 Dec-02 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,040 pfu observed at 30/1930 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Dec-02 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained elevated this period under continued, but weakening (+)CH HSS influence.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to decrease to near-background levels over 31 Dec-02 Jan as CH HSS influence subsides and a nominal solar wind regime prevails.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period as (+)CH HSS influence weakened.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 31 Dec under waning CH HSS influence. Generally quiet conditions are expected on 01-02 Jan with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2018 Dec 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA365 UGEOA 20401 81231 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 81231 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 81231 0330/ 30/// 10000 20690 3010/ 4///0 50000 61208 71704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 81231 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2018 Dec 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 365 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Dec 2018 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Dec A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Quiet to Unsettled D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 007/008 X-ray Background A1.1 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.6e+06 GT 10 MeV 1.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.20e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 4 3 2 2 3 1 1 Planetary 1 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 F. Comments: None
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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #18-53 2018 December 30 at 5:47 p.m. MST (2018 December 31 0047 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For December 24-30
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels were observed on 28 December due to coronal hole high-speed stream effects.
Outlook For December 31-January 6
No space weather storms are expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2018 Dec 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 31-Jan 02 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 31-Jan 02 2019
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 2 2 1 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 1 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2019
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2019
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2018 Dec 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Dec-02 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 4,040 pfu observed at 30/1930 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Dec-02 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained enhanced this period under the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds generally averaged about 500 km/s, but exhibited a gradual increase to 550 km/s after 30/0900 UTC. Total field ranged between 2-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-5 nT. The phi remained in a predominately positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 31 Dec under continued, but weakening CH HSS influence. A gradual return to a nominal solar wind environment is expected on 01-02 Jan.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled this period under continued (+) CH HSS influence.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 31 Dec as CH HSS effects gradually subside. Generally quiet conditions are expected on 01-02 Jan with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2018 Dec 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 365 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Dec 2018 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Dec I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Dec Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Dec to 02 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
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