WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2)

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Serial Number: 429 Issue Time: 2019 Jan 31 2246 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected Valid From: 2019 Jan 31 2247 UTC Valid To: 2019 Feb 01 0300 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 31/1628Z. Total IMF reached 20 nT at 31/1747Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -16 nT at 31/2026Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1413 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jan 072 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 000/000 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 011/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 013/018-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/25/25 Minor Storm 25/10/05 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/20/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/30/25
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jan 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2733 (N04,L264) produced several B-class flares as it rotated around the west limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares, on 31 Jan as Region 2733 still poses a threat, just beyond the west limb. Solar activity is expected to be very low on 01-02 Feb under a spotless disk.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a peak of 1,563 pfu at 30/2000 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the remainder of 31 Jan, and moderate levels 01-02 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected mostly background conditions through the first half of the period. Just after 31/0000 UTC, density began to rise, accompanied by a gradual increase in wind speeds. At approximately 31/0330 UTC, a SSBC was observed. The phi angle moved from positive to negative, an enhancement was observed in total field strength, and the Bz component shifted to mostly negative. All indications of the arrival of the anticipated CIR.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is likely to see additional enhancements throughout 31 Jan as the CIR transitions to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Elevated conditions are likely to continue into 01 Feb as the CH HSS effects persist. Influence from the CH HSS is expected to begin to wane on 02 Feb.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels likely, on 31 Jan-01 Feb due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected 02 Feb as aforementioned HSS influence begins to wane.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jan 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2019
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 00-03UT 1 5 (G1) 2 03-06UT 0 4 3 06-09UT 1 3 2 09-12UT 1 3 2 12-15UT 3 3 2 15-18UT 4 3 2 18-21UT 4 3 2 21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 3
Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely on 31 Jan-01 Feb due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2019
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2019
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Jan 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA031 UGEOA 20401 90131 0330/ 9930/ 11311 22312 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 90131 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90131 0330/ 30/// 10012 20740 3002/ 4///0 50000 65608 71704 80001 90090 99999 UGEOR 20401 90131 0330/ 30/24 31101 12733 20000 30000 43312 50090 60002 48904 02000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Jan 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 031 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Jan 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 074 SSN 012 Afr/Ap 000/000 X-ray Background A5.5 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 2.7e+06 GT 10 MeV 1.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 6.70e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 Planetary 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 F. Comments: None.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jan 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was low. Region 2733 (N04W89, Cao/beta) continued to be active producing a C5 flare at 30/0611 UTC, along with several B-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be low on 31 Jan, as region 2733 rotates off the west limb early in the period. Solar activity is expected to be very low 01-02 Feb under a spotless disk.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a peak of 1,550 pfu at 30/1835 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels 31 Jan, and moderate levels 01-02 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected mostly background conditions. Total field strength remained steady between 2-4 nT as the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. Solar wind speed decreased further, dropping to less than 300 km/s, and the phi angle was predominantly positive.
.Forecast… An enhancement in the solar wind environment is likely 31 Jan, as an anticipated CIR arrives ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Enhancements are likely to continue into 01 Feb as the CH HSS moves into a more favorable geoeffective position. Influence from the CH HSS is expected to begin to wane on 02 Feb.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are Likely 31 Jan-01 Feb due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected 02 Feb as aforementioned HSS influence begins to wane.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jan 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2019
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 00-03UT 3 5 (G1) 2 03-06UT 4 4 3 06-09UT 5 (G1) 3 2 09-12UT 3 3 2 12-15UT 3 3 2 15-18UT 3 3 2 18-21UT 3 3 2 21-00UT 4 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 31 Jan and 01 Feb due to CH HSS influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2019
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2019
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Jan 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 31 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jan 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2733 N04W89 262 0090 Cao 09 02 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Jan to 02 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at 30/0611Z from Region 2733 (N04W89). There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (31 Jan) and expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 326 km/s at 29/2106Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1563 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (31 Jan, 01 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jan 074 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 073/071/072 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 014/020-014/018-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/25 Minor Storm 25/25/10 Major-severe storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/55/30
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