Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 28/1929Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/2309Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 28/0056Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2384 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (01 Mar), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Feb 070 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 019/028 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 016/020-012/014-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/25 Minor Storm 25/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 50/40/35
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Feb 28 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2019
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 00-03UT 5 (G1) 4 4 03-06UT 3 3 3 06-09UT 2 3 3 09-12UT 4 2 3 12-15UT 3 2 2 15-18UT 3 3 2 18-21UT 4 4 2 21-00UT 4 3 3
Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely due to persisting negative polarity CH HSS influence.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2019
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2019
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Feb 28 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low and the visible disk was spotless. A filament eruption was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at approximately 1610 UTC (S41W65). The resulting CME was observed in C2 coronagraph imagery, breaking the occulting disc to the West around 1800 UTC. Analysis, and a subsequent model run have determined this to be a non Earth-directed event. No other CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low from 28 Feb-02 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase and may likely reach moderate levels on 28 Feb and 01 Mar, with a chance for high levels by 01 Mar, due to increasing CH HSS influences. High levels are likely on 02 Mar as CH HSS effects continue. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a CIR ahead of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Total IMF strength increased to over 10 nT shortly after 27/1230 UTC and reached a maximum value of 12 nT. The Bz component underwent a few periods of short duration, pronounced southward deviations. Solar wind speed also increased after 27/1230, reaching a brief peak of 558 km/s at 28/0621 UTC. The phi angle was predominately in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… CH HSS influences are expected to continue and gradually increase on 28 Feb due, to an improved geoeffective connection. Elevated solar wind speed is likely to continue into 01-02 Mar as CH HSS influences persist.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming levels.
.Forecast… Primarily unsettled to active levels, with a chance of an isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming conditions, are expected for 28 Feb due to CH HSS effects. Quiet to active levels are expected on 01-02 Mar as CH HSS influences persist.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Feb 28 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA059 UGEOA 20401 90228 0330/ 9930/ 10281 22281 30281 99999 UGEOE 20401 90228 0330/ 27/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90228 0330/ 27/// 10000 20710 3010/ 4///0 50000 61009 71704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90228 0330/ 27/24 28100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Feb 28 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 059 Issued at 0245Z on 28 Feb 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Feb A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period at the end of the day. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 009/010 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Feb 28 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 02 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 02 2019
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 00-03UT 4 4 4 03-06UT 5 (G1) 3 3 06-09UT 4 3 3 09-12UT 3 2 3 12-15UT 3 2 2 15-18UT 3 3 2 18-21UT 4 4 2 21-00UT 4 3 3
Rationale: Isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected for 28 Feb due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2019
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 02 2019
Feb 28 Mar 01 Mar 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Feb 28 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low and the visible disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low from 28 Feb-02 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to increase and may likely reach moderate levels on 28 Feb and 01 Mar, with a chance for high levels by 01 Mar, due to increasing CH HSS influences. High levels are likely on 02 Mar as CH HSS effects continue. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain at background levels all three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of an anticipated SSBC followed by the likely arrival of a CIR ahead of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS. Total IMF strength increased to over 10 nT shortly after 27/1200 UTC and reached a maximum value of 12 nT. The Bz component underwent a few periods of short duration, pronounced southward deviations. Solar wind speed also increased after 27/1200 UTC and reached over 450 km/s around 27/1530 UTC. The phi angle switched from positive to a mostly negative orientation shortly after 27/0800 UTC.
.Forecast… CH HSS influences are expected to continue and gradually increase on 28 Feb due, to an improved geoeffective connection. Elevated solar wind speed is likely to continue into 01-02 Mar as CH HSS influences persist.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet the first half of the day and reached active levels afterwards due to effects associated with CIR arrival.
.Forecast… Primarily unsettled to active levels, with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm conditions are expected for 28 Feb due to CH HSS effects. Quiet to active levels are expected on 01-02 Mar as CH HSS influences persist.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Feb 28 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 59 Issued at 0030Z on 28 Feb 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 28 Feb to 02 Mar Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 510 km/s at 27/1628Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 27/1327Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 27/1235Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (28 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Feb 071 Predicted 28 Feb-02 Mar 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 002/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-02 Mar 018/024-012/016-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-02 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/35/30 Minor Storm 25/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 55/40/35
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Feb 27 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 27-Mar 01 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 27-Mar 01 2019
Feb 27 Feb 28 Mar 01 00-03UT 1 5 (G1) 4 03-06UT 0 4 3 06-09UT 1 4 3 09-12UT 1 3 3 12-15UT 3 3 2 15-18UT 3 4 3 18-21UT 4 3 3 21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 3
Rationale: G1 (minor) geomagnetic storming is anticipated 27-28 Feb due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 27-Mar 01 2019
Feb 27 Feb 28 Mar 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 27-Mar 01 2019
Feb 27 Feb 28 Mar 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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