Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 31/1704Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/0201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 806 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Mar 070 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 007/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 30/25/30
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Mar 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2019
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 00-03UT 3 2 3 03-06UT 4 3 2 06-09UT 3 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2019
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2019
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Mar 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the disk remained spotless this period. However, an area of possible spot development was observed near N12E51. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Mar-02 Apr.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the remainder of 31 Mar. A chance for moderate to high levels is present on 01-02 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels this period. An increase in density and magnetic parameters was observed after 31/0000 UTC in conjunction with some phi variability.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 31 Mar-02 Apr under continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet early in the period with unsettled to active conditions present in the latter half of the period.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 31 Mar-02 Apr under enhanced negative polarity CH HSS influence.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Mar 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA090 UGEOA 20401 90331 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 90331 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90331 0330/ 30/// 10000 20690 3004/ 4///0 50000 61009 71804 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90331 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Mar 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 090 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Mar 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Mar A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Quiet D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 003/003 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Mar 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2019
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 3 3 2 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2019
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2019
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Mar 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low and the disk remained spotless this period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Mar-02 Apr.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Mar, with a chance for high levels on 01-02 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels this period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 31 Mar-02 Apr under continued negative polarity CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 31 Mar-02 Apr under enhanced negative polarity CH HSS influence.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Mar 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 90 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Mar 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Mar I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Mar Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Mar to 02 Apr Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 89 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 30/0111Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2355Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 793 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Mar 069 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 069/069/069 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 004/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 008/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/30/30
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Mar 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 30-Apr 01 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 30-Apr 01 2019
Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 01 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 3 3 06-09UT 0 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 3 3 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2019
Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 30-Apr 01 2019
Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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