Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 349 km/s at 29/2112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/0845Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 30/1712Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 May).
III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Apr 069 Predicted 01 May-03 May 068/068/070 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 007/010-014/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/20 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/20 Minor Storm 25/30/25 Major-severe storm 25/40/25
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Apr 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2019
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 00-03UT 2 2 4 03-06UT 1 1 4 06-09UT 0 1 3 09-12UT 1 2 3 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 1 3 2 21-00UT 2 4 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2019
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2019
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Apr 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low for 30 Apr-02 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Apr-02 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 300-390 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-5 nT while the Bz component was between +2/-5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on 01 May as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. Solar wind speed reaching 500 km/s is likely based on STEREO A data.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Apr. Late on 01 May, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active conditions. Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist into 02 May.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Apr 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA120 UGEOA 20401 90430 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20302 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 90430 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90430 0330/ 29/// 10000 20670 3005/ 4///0 50000 65908 71904 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90430 0330/ 29/24 30100 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Apr 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 120 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Apr 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Apr A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 067 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 006/004 X-ray Background A5.9 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 4.2e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.9e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.50e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 2 0 1 2 2 1 1 Planetary 2 2 0 1 1 2 1 1 F. Comments: None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Apr 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Apr-02 May.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Apr-02 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 325-405 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-5 nT while the Bz component was between +4/-5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced late on 01 May as a negative polarity CH HSS moves into geoeffective position. Solar wind speed reaching 500 km/s is likely based on STEREO A data.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Apr. Late on 01 May, a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active conditions. Unsettled to active levels are expected to persist into 02 May.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Apr 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2019
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 00-03UT 2 2 4 03-06UT 2 1 4 06-09UT 1 1 3 09-12UT 1 2 3 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 1 3 2 21-00UT 2 4 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2019
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2019
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Apr 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 120 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Apr 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Apr I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Apr Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Apr to 02 May Nmbr Lat Lo 2738 N06 319
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 119 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 404 km/s at 29/0025Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/1419Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/1418Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Apr) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (01 May, 02 May).
III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Apr 067 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 004/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 006/005-007/010-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/30 Minor Storm 01/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 15/25/30 Major-severe storm 15/25/40
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.