Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 524 km/s at 30/2259Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4446 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Jun, 02 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 May 069 Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 071/072/072 90 Day Mean 31 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 008/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 006/006-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/20 Minor Storm 15/20/25 Major-severe storm 15/10/20
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 May 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 31-Jun 02 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 31-Jun 02 2019
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 00-03UT 2 3 2 03-06UT 2 2 1 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2019
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2019
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 May 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low under a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 31 May-02 Jun. Old Region 2741 (N05, L=272) is due to return on late 31 May into early 01 Jun.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,766 pfu observed at 30/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (31 May – 02 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected waning influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged between 1-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +4 nT to -5 nT. Solar winds gradually decreased from near 525 km/s to approximately 430 km/s. The phi angle was oriented predominately in the negative solar sector.
.Forecast… Negative polarity CH HSS influence is expected to continue to wane over the next two days (31 May – 01 Jun). A return to background conditions is expected by day three (02 Jun).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… Field conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels under waning negative polarity CH HSS influence over the next two days (31 May – 01 Jun). A return to quiet conditions is anticipated on 02 Jun as CH HSS activity wanes.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 May 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA151 UGEOA 20401 90531 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20312 30312 99999 UGEOE 20401 90531 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90531 0330/ 30/// 10000 20690 3008/ 4///0 50000 67308 71904 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90531 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 May 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 151 Issued at 0245Z on 31 May 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 May A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was unsettled. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 008/008 X-ray Background A7.3 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 7.4e+05 GT 10 MeV 1.9e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 5.30e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 3 2 2 3 2 3 2 2 Planetary 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 F. Comments: None.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 May 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 31-Jun 02 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 31-Jun 02 2019
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 00-03UT 3 3 2 03-06UT 2 2 1 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2019
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2019
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 May 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low under a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 31 May-02 Jun. Old Region 2741 (N05, L=272) is due to return on late 31 May into early 01 Jun.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,766 pfu observed at 30/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days (31 May – 02 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters continued to reflect influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field ranged between 1-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +4 nT to -5 nT. Solar winds averaged about 540 km/s with a very gradual decrease in speed through the period. The phi angle was oriented predominately in the negative solar sector.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under negative polarity CH HSS influence over the next two days (31 May – 01 Jun). A slow return to near-background conditions is expected by day three (02 Jun) as CH HSS influence wanes.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… Field conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels due to negative polarity CH HSS activity over the next two days (31 May – 01 Jun). A return to quiet conditions is anticipated on 02 Jun as CH HSS activity wanes.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 May 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 151 Issued at 0030Z on 31 May 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 May I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z May Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 May to 02 Jun Nmbr Lat Lo 2741 N05 272
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 30/0107Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/2332Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2337Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1766 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 May, 01 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 May 069 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 070/071/072 90 Day Mean 30 May 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 016/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 May 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low under a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 30 May-01 Jun.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 30 May, then increase to moderate to high levels on 31 May-01 June due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained enhanced under a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field averaged between 3-6 nT, while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Wind speeds ranged from 520-560 km/s. The phi angle was predominately in a negative solar sector, while undertaking only brief excursions into a positive orientation.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under CH HSS activity over the next two days. A return to near-background conditions is expected by 01 Jun as CH HSS influences wane.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… Field conditions are expected to be at unsettled to active levels due to CH HSS activity over the next two days (30-31 May) with isolated active periods possible on 30 May. Mostly quiet conditions are anticipated on 01 Jun as CH HSS activity wanes.
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