Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 345 km/s at 30/1906Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2057Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2229Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jun 067 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/10/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jun 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Jun – 02 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on 30 Jun – 02 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected background conditions.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain at background levels on 30 Jun – 02 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Jun – 02 Jul.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jun 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 30-Jul 02 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 30-Jul 02 2019
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 0 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2019
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2019
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Jun 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA181 UGEOA 20401 90630 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20301 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 90630 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90630 0330/ 29/// 10000 20680 3003/ 4///0 50000 66908 72004 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90630 0330/ 29/24 30100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Jun 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 181 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Jun 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jun A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Field conditions were at quiet levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 068 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 003/003 X-ray Background A6.8 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 4.1e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.0e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.10e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-15 satellite synchronous orbit W128 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 2 Planetary 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 2 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jun 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 30-Jul 02 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 30-Jul 02 2019
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2019
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2019
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jun 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low with a spotless disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Jun – 02 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal levels on 30 Jun – 02 Jul. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were consistent with ambient conditions.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain at background levels on 30 Jun – 02 Jul.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Jun – 02 Jul.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Jun 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 181 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Jun 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jun I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Jun Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Jun to 02 Jul Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 369 km/s at 29/0513Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Jun 068 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jun 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 29-Jul 01 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 29-Jul 01 2019
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 0 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2019
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2019
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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