Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 31/1926Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/2229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 30/2246Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Aug) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Aug, 03 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jul 067 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 009/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 008/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 25/20/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jul 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2019
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 00-03UT 3 3 2 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 3 2 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 3 1 1 15-18UT 3 1 1 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 4 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2019
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2019
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jul 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots, and there were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 31 Jul-02 Aug.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Jul-01 Aug, then increase to moderate to high levels on 02 Aug with CH HSS activity.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of CH HSS influence. Wind speeds increased from ambient-like, background conditions to peaks just above 500 km/s. Total field also underwent enhancement reaching values of up to 11 nT, and the Bz component reached maximum, southward deflections of -8 nT. The Phi angle was predominately negative, but underwent brief excursions into the positive solar sector.
.Forecast… Enhanced conditions are expected on 31 Jul-01 Aug under the continuing influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. A return to background levels is anticipated on 02 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… Unsettled to active levels are expected 31 Jul-01 Aug with a CH HSS. Quiet conditions return for 02 Aug.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Jul 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA212 UGEOA 20401 90731 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 90731 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90731 0330/ 30/// 10000 20660 3008/ 4///0 50000 66508 72104 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90731 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Jul 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 212 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Jul 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jul A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 066 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 008/007 X-ray Background A6.4 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 8.2e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.1e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 4.00e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 0 1 1 3 3 2 3 Planetary 1 1 1 0 2 3 2 3 F. Comments: None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jul 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2019
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 00-03UT 4 3 2 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 3 1 1 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 4 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2019
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2019
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jul 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots, and there were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 31 Jul-02 Aug.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Jul-01 Aug, then increase to moderate to high levels on 02 Aug with CH HSS activity.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind parameters were marginally elevated with the possible arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar winds speeds increased from around 350 km/s to near 400 km/s with the arrival of this feature. The magnetic field structure at L1 as sampled by the ACE spacecraft also showed a 5 nT increase in field strength and increased variability in the Bz component with onset. Phi switched from positive to negative, which is consistent with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… Enhanced conditions are expected on 31 Jul-01 Aug with the negative polarity CH HSS. A return to background levels is anticipated on 02 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet, but became unsettled midday with what is thought to be the early arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… Unsettled to active levels are expected 31 Jul-01 Aug with a CH HSS. Quiet conditions return for 02 Aug.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Jul 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 212 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jul 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jul I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Jul Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Jul to 02 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 29/0707Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/0604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/0736Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Jul 066 Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 005/005-008/008-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/25 Minor Storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 15/15/40
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jul 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 30-Aug 01 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 30-Aug 01 2019
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 0 2 3 06-09UT 1 1 3 09-12UT 0 1 3 12-15UT 1 2 3 15-18UT 2 2 3 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2019
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2019
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.