Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jul 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots, and there were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 30 Jul-01 Aug.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30-31 Jul. Levels are likely to increase above 1000 pfu on 01 Aug as a result of CH HSS activity.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind parameters were reflective of ambient-like, background conditions.
.Forecast… Enhanced conditions are expected on 31 Jul-01 Aug due to the anticipated onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Jul. Unsettled to active levels are expected 31 Jul-01 Aug in response to anticipated CH HSS influence.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Jul 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA211 UGEOA 20401 90730 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20302 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 90730 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90730 0330/ 29/// 10000 20660 3004/ 4///0 50000 66508 72204 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90730 0330/ 29/24 30100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Jul 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 211 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Jul 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jul A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet, D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 066 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 005/005 X-ray Background A6.4 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 5.7e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.2e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 3.70e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 Planetary 2 3 2 0 1 1 1 1 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jul 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 30-Aug 01 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 30-Aug 01 2019
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 1 2 3 06-09UT 2 1 3 09-12UT 2 1 3 12-15UT 1 2 3 15-18UT 1 2 3 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 1 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2019
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 30-Aug 01 2019
Jul 30 Jul 31 Aug 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jul 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots, and there were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 30 Jul-01 Aug.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30-31 Jul. Levels are likely to increase above 1000 pfu on 01 Aug as a result of CH HSS activity.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind environment was at background levels.
.Forecast… Enhanced conditions are expected on 31 Jul-01 Aug due to the anticipated onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Jul. Unsettled to active levels are expected 31 Jul-01 Aug in response to anticipated CH HSS influence.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Jul 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 211 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Jul 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jul I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Jul Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Jul to 01 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 210 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jul 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jul, 31 Jul, 01 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 29/0707Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 29/0604Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 29/0736Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (30 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Jul 066 Predicted 30 Jul-01 Aug 066/066/066 90 Day Mean 29 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jul 007/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug 005/005-008/008-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jul-01 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/25 Minor Storm 01/01/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 15/15/40
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Jul 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 29-Jul 31 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 29-Jul 31 2019
Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 00-03UT 2 1 2 03-06UT 2 1 2 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 1 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 1 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 29-Jul 31 2019
Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 29-Jul 31 2019
Jul 29 Jul 30 Jul 31 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jul 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low under a spotless solar disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 29-31 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 29-31 Jul and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are expected to continue near background levels on days one and two (29-30 Jul). Enhanced conditions are expected on day three (31 Jul) due to the anticipated onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (29-30 Jul). Active conditions are expected on day three (31 Jul) in response to anticipated CH HSS influence.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Jul 29 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA210 UGEOA 20401 90729 0330/ 9930/ 10291 20293 30291 99999 UGEOE 20401 90729 0330/ 28/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90729 0330/ 28/// 10000 20670 3004/ 4///0 50000 66408 72104 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90729 0330/ 28/24 29100 99999

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