Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 754 km/s at 31/1250Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 30/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 31/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8408 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Aug 066 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 029/042 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 021/030-013/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/30/15 Minor Storm 40/15/05 Major-severe storm 20/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 75/45/25
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WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2)

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Serial Number: 433 Issue Time: 2019 Aug 31 1421 UTC
EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected Extension to Serial Number: 432 Valid From: 2019 Aug 31 1025 UTC Now Valid Until: 2019 Aug 31 2100 UTC Warning Condition: Persistence
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
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ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2)

Space Weather Message Code: ALTK06 Serial Number: 473 Issue Time: 2019 Aug 31 1421 UTC
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 Threshold Reached: 2019 Aug 31 1420 UTC Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC
Active Warning: Yes NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Aug 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 31 Aug – 02 Sep.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Aug. An increase to moderate to high levels on 01-02 Sep is expected in response to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected a slow regime to start the period. Just after 30/1200 UTC, total field strength increased from 5 nT to 12 nT, the Bz component deflected from 2 nT to -3 nT, and solar wind speeds increased from around 380 km/s to near 430 km/s. Wind speeds continued to increase throughout the period to reach a peak speed approaching 700 km/s by period’s end, and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -10 nT. These enhanced parameters indicated an early arrival of the anticipated CIR in advance of the positive polarity CH HSS. phi angle remained positive.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect continued enhanced levels on 31 Aug – 01 Sep. Conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated on 02 Sep, but begin a gradual decrease by the end of the period.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels due to CH HSS effects.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on 31 Aug, due to persistent CH HSS influence. CH HSS influence is expected to continue through the beginning of 01 Sep, with periods of G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storm conditions likely early in the period. Late on 02 Sep, conditions are expected to taper off as CH HSS effects begin to wane.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Aug 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2019 is 6 (NOAA Scale G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2019
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 00-03UT 4 6 (G2) 4 03-06UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 4 06-09UT 4 5 (G1) 3 09-12UT 5 (G1) 4 3 12-15UT 6 (G2) 3 3 15-18UT 4 3 3 18-21UT 5 (G1) 3 3 21-00UT 4 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) – G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on Aug 31 due to CH HSS influence. G2 (Moderate) storm levels are likely on Sep 01.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2019
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2019
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 6 (G2)

Space Weather Message Code: WARK06 Serial Number: 432 Issue Time: 2019 Aug 31 1026 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected Valid From: 2019 Aug 31 1025 UTC Valid To: 2019 Aug 31 1500 UTC Warning Condition: Onset NOAA Scale: G2 – Moderate
NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude. Induced Currents – Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms. Spacecraft – Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible. Radio – HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes. Aurora – Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Aug 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA243 UGEOA 20401 90831 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30312 99999 UGEOE 20401 90831 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90831 0330/ 30/// 10000 20670 3010/ 4///0 50000 66108 72104 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90831 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Aug 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 243 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Aug 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Aug A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Field conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 067 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 010/009 X-ray Background A6.0 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 5.9e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.1e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W104 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 3.90e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W104 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 2 2 3 4 3 3 Planetary 1 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Aug 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2019 is 6 (NOAA Scale G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2019
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 00-03UT 4 6 (G2) 4 03-06UT 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 4 06-09UT 4 5 (G1) 3 09-12UT 3 4 3 12-15UT 4 3 3 15-18UT 4 3 3 18-21UT 5 (G1) 3 3 21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 31 Aug due to a geoeffective, positive polarity CH HSS. The solar wind environment is likely to become favorable for G2 (Moderate) storming on 01 Sep with ongoing CH HSS effects. No significant transient features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2019
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2019
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Aug 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low 31 Aug – 02 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Aug – 01 Sep. An increase to normal to high levels on 02 Sep is expected in response to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected a slow regime through midday. Just after 30/1200 UTC, a solar sector boundary crossing was observed, with phi angle rotating into a positive orientation. Simultaneously, total field strength increased from 5 nT to 12 nT, the Bz component deflected from 2 nT to -3 nT, and solar wind speeds increased from around 380 km/s to near 430 km/s. Wind speeds continued to increase throughout the period to reach a peak speed approaching 600 km/s by period’s end, and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to -8 nT. These enhanced parameters indicated an early arrival of the anticipated CIR in advance of the positive polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect continued enhanced levels on 31 Aug – 01 Sep. Solar wind speed is expected to reach upwards of 650 km/s based on STEREO-A PLASTIC data, and continue into 01 Sep. Conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated on 02 Sep, but begin a gradual decrease by the end of the period.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely on 31 Aug, due to CH HSS onset. CH HSS influence is expected to persist through the beginning of 01 Sep, with periods of G1-G2(Minor-Moderate) storm conditions likely early in the period. Late on 02 Sep, conditions are expected to taper off as CH HSS effects begin to wane.
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