Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 30/0136Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2059Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/0559Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 45138 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (01 Oct, 02 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day three (03 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Sep 068 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 067
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 008/008-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/20/30 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/25/30 Major-severe storm 30/25/40
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Sep 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 30-Oct 02 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 30-Oct 02 2019
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 00-03UT 3 3 2 03-06UT 4 3 2 06-09UT 4 2 2 09-12UT 3 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 4 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 1 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2019
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2019
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Sep 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No spots were observed on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Sep – 02 Oct.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 49,300 pfu on 29/2035 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be high to very high levels on 30 Sep – 02 Oct due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected waning influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased from around 550 km/s to near 475 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Total magnetic field strength was between 3-7 nT while the Bz component was mostly negative, reaching a maximum southward value of -6 nT at 30/0559 UTC. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decrease towards nominal conditions over 30 Sep – 01 Oct. Nominal conditions are expected on 02 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels on 30 Sep decrease to unsettled levels on 01 Oct due to waning influence from a coronal hole. Quiet levels are expected to return on 02 Oct.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Sep 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA273 UGEOA 20401 90930 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20301 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 90930 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 90930 0330/ 29/// 10000 20670 3013/ 4///0 50000 64708 72104 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 90930 0330/ 29/24 30100 99999

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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Sep 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 273 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Sep 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Sep A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 067 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 010/012 X-ray Background A4.7 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 9.7e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.1e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W104 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.60e+09 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W104 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 3 3 3 1 3 3 3 Planetary 2 3 2 2 1 3 4 4 F. Comments: The GOES-14 electron flux reached very high levels this period.
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #19-39 2019 September 29 at 8:28 p.m. MDT (2019 September 30 0228 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For September 23-29
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed on 27-28 Sep due to the influence of a coronal hole high speed stream.
No other space weather storms were observed during the summary period.
Outlook For September 30-October 6
No space weather storms are expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Sep 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 30-Oct 02 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 30-Oct 02 2019
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 00-03UT 3 3 2 03-06UT 3 2 3 06-09UT 3 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2019
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2019
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Sep 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No spots were observed on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Sep – 02 Oct.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 49,300 pfu on 29/2035 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be high to very high levels on 30 Sep – 02 Oct due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected waning influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds decreased from around 625 km/s to near 475 km/s by the end of the reporting period. Total magnetic field strength was at or below 5 nT while the Bz component was variable between +3/-5 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind speeds are expected to slowly decrease towards nominal conditions over the next three days (30 Sep – 02 Oct).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled levels for the forecast period (30 Sep – 02 Oct) due to waning CH HSS effects.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Sep 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 273 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Sep 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Sep I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Sep Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Sep to 02 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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