Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 31/0633Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 31/0035Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/0054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1885 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Nov, 03 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Oct 071 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Oct 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with no sunspots on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Oct – 02 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period, with a peak flux of 20,047 pfu observed at 30/1515 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Oct – 02 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind environment reflected enhancements due to possible onset of a CIR and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Total field reached a maximum of 13 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between 10 nT and -4 nT. Solar wind speed remained under 400 km/s. Phi was variable.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at enhanced levels through 01 Nov due to influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. By 02 Nov, CH influence is expected to subside, returning to a background solar wind environment.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period due to CH HSS influences.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 31 Oct – 01 Nov, with a chance for an isolated active period on 31 Oct, under the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are anticipated by 02 Nov.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Oct 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 31-Nov 02 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 31-Nov 02 2019
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 00-03UT 4 2 2 03-06UT 1 2 2 06-09UT 0 2 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 1 3 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2019
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2019
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Oct 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA304 UGEOA 20401 91031 0330/ 9930/ 10311 21312 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 91031 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 91031 0330/ 30/// 10000 20700 3009/ 4///0 50000 66508 72104 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 91031 0330/ 30/24 311

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Oct 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 304 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Oct 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 006/008 X-ray Background A6.5 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 9.0e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.1e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 5.20e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 Planetary 1 2 2 2 3 3 2 2 F. Comments: The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence reached high levels.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Oct 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 31-Nov 02 2019 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 31-Nov 02 2019
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 3 2 2 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 1 3 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2019
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2019
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Oct 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with no sunspots on the visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Oct – 02 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period, with a peak flux of 20,047 pfu observed at 30/1515 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Oct – 02 Nov. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind environment reflected enhancements due to possible combined interaction of the 25 Oct CME and the onset of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Total field reached a maximum of 13 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between 10 nT and -4 nT. Solar wind speed remained under 400 km/s. Phi was mostly negative with isolated oscillations into the positive sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at enhanced levels through 01 Nov due to influences from a negative polarity CH HSS. By 02 Nov, CH influence is expected to subside, returning to a background solar wind environment.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 31 Oct – 01 Nov, with a chance for an isolated active period on 31 Oct, under the weak influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions are anticipated by 02 Nov.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Oct 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 304 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Oct 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Oct to 02 Nov Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 421 km/s at 30/0340Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 30/0902Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 20047 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Oct, 01 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (02 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Oct 070 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 007/008-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 20/20/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Oct 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 30-Nov 01 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 30-Nov 01 2019
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 00-03UT 1 3 2 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 1 2 18-21UT 3 1 3 21-00UT 4 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2019
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2019
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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