Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Nov 12 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA316 UGEOA 20401 91112 0330/ 9930/ 10121 20121 30121 99999 UGEOE 20401 91112 0330/ 11/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 91112 0330/ 11/// 10000 20700 3007/ 4///0 50000 67308 72204 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 91112 0330/ 11/24 12100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Nov 12 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 316 Issued at 0245Z on 12 Nov 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Nov A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 007/006 X-ray Background A7.3 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 6.2e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.2e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.00e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 Planetary 0 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Nov 12 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 12-Nov 14 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 12-Nov 14 2019
Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 4 1 1 06-09UT 3 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2019
Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 12-Nov 14 2019
Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov 14 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 12 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No active regions with sunspots or Earth directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 12-15 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 12-14 Nov, but could increase to high levels by 14 Nov as a result of CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were enhanced at L1. It is unclear if this enhancement is a result of a negative polarity CH HSS, a slow-moving transient, or both. Nonetheless the solar wind environment is disturbed. Wind speeds increased from around 315 km/s to just shy of 400 km/s around 11/1300 UTC. Winds then leveled off around 365 km/s for the remainder of the day. The day began with phi oriented in a positive solar sector before changing into a negative sector. This change in phi happened after field strength was already agitated, which lends itself to this activity being the result of a weak transient, rather than the CH HSS, which had been forecast. Field strength peaked at 11 nT once in a negative solar sector, and Bz underwent a maximum southward deflection of -11 nT. Field strength remained elevated through the end of the day.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced into 12 Nov due to influences from a possible transient and a negative polarity CH HSS. A return to nominal conditions is anticipated by 13 Nov.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under an enhanced solar wind environment.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active levels on 12 Nov with an enhanced IMF. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 13 Nov, and mostly quiet conditions are expected on 14 Nov as the solar wind environment settles.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Nov 12 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 316 Issued at 0030Z on 12 Nov 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 11 Nov I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 11/2400Z Nov Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 12 Nov to 14 Nov Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 395 km/s at 11/1313Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 11/2023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 11/0948Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 657 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet levels on days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 11 Nov 070 Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 11 Nov 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 010/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/10/10 Minor Storm 10/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/15/15 Major-severe storm 40/10/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 11 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No active regions with sunspots or Earth directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 11-13 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 11-13 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels through about 11/0300 UTC when a gradual enhancement in parameters was observed. Increases in density, wind speed and total field indicated an anticipated CIR in advance of a negative polarity CH HSS became geoeffective. Shortly after 11/0900 UTC, wind speed peaked near 370 km/s, total field peaked at 11 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward extent of -11 nT.
.Forecast… An enhancement in the near-Earth solar wind environment is expected to persist on 11-12 Nov due to CH HSS influence. A return to nominal conditions is anticipated by 13 Nov.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under and enhanced solar wind environment.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is likely to reach active periods intermittently on 11 Nov due to CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 12 Nov, and generally quiet conditions are expected on 13 Nov, as CH HSS influence wanes and subsides.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Nov 11 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 11-Nov 13 2019 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 11-Nov 13 2019
Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 00-03UT 0 3 2 03-06UT 1 3 1 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 3 2 1 12-15UT 4 2 1 15-18UT 3 1 1 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 4 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 11-Nov 13 2019
Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 11-Nov 13 2019
Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov 13 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Nov 11 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA315 UGEOA 20401 91111 0330/ 9930/ 10111 21111 30111 99999 UGEOE 20401 91111 0330/ 10/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 91111 0330/ 10/// 10000 20710 3003/ 4///0 50000 67108 72204 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 91111 0330/ 10/24 11100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Nov 11 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 315 Issued at 0245Z on 11 Nov 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 10 Nov A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Quiet D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/002 X-ray Background A7.0 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 4.0e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.2e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 3.90e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 0 2 2 1 1 0 0 Planetary 1 0 2 1 1 0 0 0 F. Comments: None
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