Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 334 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 416 km/s at 30/1200Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/0922Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 504 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Dec, 02 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Nov 070 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/25
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low this period. The solar disk remained spotless and no CMEs were detected in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 30 Nov-02 Dec.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 30 Nov-02 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period under a nominal solar wind regime.
.Forecast… Background solar wind conditions are expected to persist on 30 Nov-02 Dec.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet, with an isolated unsettled period.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Nov-02 Dec.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Nov 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 30-Dec 02 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 30-Dec 02 2019
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 0 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2019
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2019
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Nov 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA334 UGEOA 20401 91130 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20302 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 91130 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 91130 0330/ 29/// 10000 20700 3005/ 4///0 50000 67908 72204 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 91130 0330/ 29/24 30100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Nov 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 334 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Nov 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Nov A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 003/003 X-ray Background A7.8 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 5.5e+05 GT 10 MeV 2.2e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.30e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-14 satellite synchronous orbit W105 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 2 Planetary 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 F. Comments: None.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Nov 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 30-Dec 02 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 30-Dec 02 2019
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2019
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2019
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Nov 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 334 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Nov 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Nov I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nov Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Nov to 02 Dec Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low this period. The solar disk remained spotless and no CMEs were detected in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 30 Nov-02 Dec.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 30 Nov-02 Dec and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period under a nominal solar wind regime.
.Forecast… Background solar wind conditions are expected to persist on 30 Nov-02 Dec.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled under a nominal solar wind regime.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on 30 Nov-02 Dec.
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 390 km/s at 29/2008Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/0150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/1908Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 695 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (30 Nov, 01 Dec, 02 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Nov 070 Predicted 30 Nov-02 Dec 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 29 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Nov 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 29-Dec 01 2019 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 29-Dec 01 2019
Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 0 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 29-Dec 01 2019
Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 29-Dec 01 2019
Nov 29 Nov 30 Dec 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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