Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan, 03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 327 km/s at 31/0226Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1600Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/0225Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Jan) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Jan, 03 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Dec 071 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 002/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/15 Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Dec 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 31-Jan 02 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 31-Jan 02 2020
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 00-03UT 1 3 1 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 1 2 1 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2020
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2020
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Dec 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low this period. There were no active regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Dec – 02 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… Both the greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were below event thresholds throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (31 Dec – 02 Jan).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period.
.Forecast… Weak, negative polarity CH HSS effects are anticipated for the next few days (31 Dec – 02 Jan), which will likely result in elevated solar wind parameters.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 31 Dec and 01 Jan due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS influence.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2019 Dec 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA365 UGEOA 20401 91231 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20312 30312 99999 UGEOE 20401 91231 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 91231 0330/ 30/// 10000 20710 3002/ 4///0 50000 63809 74604 80001 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 91231 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2019 Dec 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 365 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Dec 2019 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Dec A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/001 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Dec 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 31-Jan 02 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 31-Jan 02 2020
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 00-03UT 3 3 1 03-06UT 3 3 2 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2020
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2020
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Dec 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low this period. There were no active regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Dec – 02 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… Both the greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux were below event thresholds throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period (31 Dec – 02 Jan).
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at background levels this period.
.Forecast… Weak, negative polarity CH HSS effects are anticipated for the next few days (31 Dec – 01 Jan), which will likely result in elevated solar wind parameters.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on 31 Dec and 01 Jan due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS influence.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2019 Dec 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 365 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Dec 2019 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Dec I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Dec Nmbr Location Lo 2753 S29W38 122 II. Regions Due to Return 31 Dec to 02 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2019
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 334 km/s at 30/0346Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2008Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/1412Z. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (31 Dec, 01 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Dec 071 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 000/001 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 20/20/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2019 Dec 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 30-Jan 01 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 30-Jan 01 2020
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 1 3 3 06-09UT 0 2 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 3 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2020
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2020
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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