Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 31 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Feb, 02 Feb, 03 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 557 km/s at 31/0933Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/0221Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0215Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 334 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Feb) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Feb, 03 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jan 074 Predicted 01 Feb-03 Feb 074/072/070 90 Day Mean 31 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jan 009/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jan 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Feb-03 Feb 011/010-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Feb-03 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/10/10 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/20/20 Major-severe storm 30/10/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2757 (N04W63, Hrx/alpha) was stable and remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Jan – 02 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… Both the greater than 2 MeV electrons and 10 MeV protons remained below event thresholds this period.
.Forecast… Both the greater than 2 MeV electrons and 10 MeV protons are expected to remain below event thresholds on 31 Jan – 02 Feb.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were enhanced due to likely influence of the negative polarity southern crown and possible proximity of the HCS. Wind speeds averaged between 400-450 km/s for the majority of the period. However, speeds increased further just after 31/0200 UTC, varying between 450-500 km/s and briefly reaching 550 km/s. Total field values also saw weak enhancements of up to 8 nT, but have since settled to under 5 nT. The Bz component underwent several, extended southward deflections with -7 nT being the greatest. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… The enhancement in the solar wind environment is anticipated to continue through 31 Jan, and begin to decline over the course of 01 Feb. A return to ambient, background-like conditions is expected 02 Feb.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods.
.Forecast… The influence of a negative polarity CH HSS and possible HCS proximity is expected to cause isolated periods of unsettled, with a chance for active levels, on 31 Jan. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely 01 Feb, and mostly quiet conditions are anticipated 02 Feb.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2020
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 00-03UT 3 3 2 03-06UT 4 2 2 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 3 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2020
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2020
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Jan 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA031 UGEOA 20401 00131 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 00131 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00131 0330/ 30/// 10011 20740 3012/ 4///0 50000 61208 74504 80001 90060 99999 UGEOR 20401 00131 0330/ 30/24 31101 12757 20000 30000 47201 50060 60001 45604 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Jan 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 031 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Jan 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated active period during the 15-18 UTC synoptic period. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 074 SSN 011 Afr/Ap 009/008 X-ray Background A1.2 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 2.6e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 3.70e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 Planetary 1 2 2 1 2 4 2 2 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2020 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2020
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 2 1 2 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2020
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2020
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jan 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2757 (N04W56, Hsx/alpha) was stable and remained inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Jan – 02 Feb.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… Both the greater than 2 MeV electrons and 10 MeV protons remained below event thresholds this period.
.Forecast… Both the greater than 2 MeV electrons and 10 MeV protons are expected to remain below event thresholds on 31 Jan – 02 Feb.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds varied between 400 km/s to 450 km/s. Total field was 3-7 nT and the Bz component was +/- 6 nT with several sustained southward deflections. Phi was predominantly negative.
.Forecast… The slight enhancement in the solar wind environment is anticipated to continue through 31 Jan due to the influence of a -CH HSS. A return to ambient, background conditions is expected by 01 Feb.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period during the 15-18 UTC synoptic window.
.Forecast… The influence of a negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause isolated periods of unsettled, with a chance for active levels, on 31 Jan. Quiet levels are expected for 01-02 Feb with a return to a nominal solar wind environment.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jan 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 31 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jan 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2757 N04W56 092 0060 Hsx 03 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Jan to 02 Feb Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 30 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jan 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 501 km/s at 30/1810Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/1625Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/1624Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 141 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (31 Jan, 01 Feb, 02 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jan 074 Predicted 31 Jan-02 Feb 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 30 Jan 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jan 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jan-02 Feb 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jan-02 Feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jan 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 30-Feb 01 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 30-Feb 01 2020
Jan 30 Jan 31 Feb 01 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 3 1 1 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 1 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2020
Jan 30 Jan 31 Feb 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2020
Jan 30 Jan 31 Feb 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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