Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 60 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar, 03 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 787 km/s at 29/0641Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 29/1526Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 29/1141Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 684 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Mar, 02 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Feb 070 Predicted 01 Mar-03 Mar 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 29 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Feb 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Mar-03 Mar 011/012-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Mar-03 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/15 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 35/35/20
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Feb 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 29-Mar 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 29-Mar 02 2020
Feb 29 Mar 01 Mar 02 00-03UT 2 3 4 03-06UT 2 4 3 06-09UT 2 3 3 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 3 2 3 15-18UT 3 2 3 18-21UT 3 3 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 29-Mar 02 2020
Feb 29 Mar 01 Mar 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 29-Mar 02 2020
Feb 29 Mar 01 Mar 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained at very low levels with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 1,195 pfu observed at 28/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate to high levels on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The near-earth solar wind environment became slightly enhanced this period due to solar sector variability. Solar wind speed values reached slowly increased from initial values around 350 km/s to a peak of 500 km/s at around 29/0300 UTC. Solar wind density remained slightly elevated throughout the period, but remained below 10 particles per cubic cm. Late in the period, at around 29/1100 UTC, IMF total field strength values increased to around 9 nT and Bz increased to around -7 nT.
.Forecast… Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected 29 Feb through 02 Mar as an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Mar with unsettled to isolated active levels likely on 01-02 Mar. This increase in activity is due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Feb 29 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA060 UGEOA 20401 00229 0330/ 9930/ 10291 20291 30291 99999 UGEOE 20401 00229 0330/ 28/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00229 0330/ 28/// 10000 20710 3006/ 4///0 50000 62609 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00229 0330/ 28/24 29100 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Feb 29 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 060 Issued at 0245Z on 29 Feb 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Feb A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/004 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 29 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained at very low levels with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate to high levels with a maximum flux of 1,195 pfu observed at 28/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate to high levels on 29 Feb and 01-02 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained near background levels through about 28/0630 UTC when an overall increase in wind parameters was observed. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from about 325 km/s to maximum speeds near 470 km/s. A steady total field at about 3-4 nT increased to a maximum of 8 nT while the Bz component indicated variability between -5 nT to +7 nT. Phi was mostly in a negative sector through 28/0630 UTC before rotating to a more positive orientation until 28/1830 UTC.
.Forecast… Enhanced solar wind parameters are expected 29 Feb through 02 Mar as an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on 29 Mar with unsettled to isolated active levels likely on 01-2 Mar. This increase in activity is due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Feb 29 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 29-Mar 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 29-Mar 02 2020
Feb 29 Mar 01 Mar 02 00-03UT 2 3 4 03-06UT 2 4 3 06-09UT 3 3 3 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 3 2 3 15-18UT 3 2 3 18-21UT 3 3 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01-02 Mar due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 29-Mar 02 2020
Feb 29 Mar 01 Mar 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 29-Mar 02 2020
Feb 29 Mar 01 Mar 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Feb 29 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 60 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Feb 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 29 Feb to 02 Mar Nmbr Lat Lo None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 59 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Feb, 01 Mar, 02 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 28/2016Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 28/1634Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/2030Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1195 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Feb) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (01 Mar, 02 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Feb 071 Predicted 29 Feb-02 Mar 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 28 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Feb 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Feb 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Feb-02 Mar 008/010-011/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Feb-02 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/25 Minor Storm 05/10/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 25/35/35
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Feb 28 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 01 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 01 2020
Feb 28 Feb 29 Mar 01 00-03UT 2 1 3 03-06UT 2 2 4 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 1 3 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 01 2020
Feb 28 Feb 29 Mar 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 01 2020
Feb 28 Feb 29 Mar 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.