Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 28 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… The visible disk remained spotless, keeping solar activity at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 28-29 Feb and 01 Mar.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate levels on 28-29 Feb and moderate to high levels on 01 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained near background levels. Solar wind speeds ranged from 320 – 380 km/s, total field fluctuated from 1-7 nT, and the Bz component varied between +/-4 nT. Phi was mostly negative for the majority of the period before rotating to a mostly positive orientation after 28/0600 UTC.
.Forecast… Near background conditions are expected through 28 Feb. An enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected early on 29 Feb, lasting through 01 Mar as an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 28 Feb. On 29 Feb through 01 Mar, field conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active intervals likely on 01 Mar. This increase in activity is due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Feb 28 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA059 UGEOA 20401 00228 0330/ 9930/ 10281 20282 30281 99999 UGEOE 20401 00228 0330/ 27/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00228 0330/ 27/// 10000 20710 3004/ 4///0 50000 63709 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00228 0330/ 27/24 28100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Feb 28 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 059 Issued at 0245Z on 28 Feb 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Feb A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 002/002 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Feb 28 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 28-Mar 01 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 28-Mar 01 2020
Feb 28 Feb 29 Mar 01 00-03UT 2 1 3 03-06UT 1 2 4 06-09UT 1 2 3 09-12UT 1 3 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 01 2020
Feb 28 Feb 29 Mar 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 28-Mar 01 2020
Feb 28 Feb 29 Mar 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 28 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity continued at very low levels as the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 28-29 Feb and 01 Mar.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate levels on 28-29 Feb and moderate to high levels on 01 Mar due to HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were near background levels. Solar wind speeds averaged near 360 km/s, total field ranged between between 1-4 nT and the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT. Phi oscillated between positive and negative solar sectors.
.Forecast… Near background conditions are expected through 28 Feb. An enhancement in solar wind parameters is expected early on 29 Feb through 01 Mar as an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS moves into a geoeffective position.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 28 Feb. By 29 Feb, and through 01 Mar, field conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated active intervals likely on 01 Mar. This increase in activity levels is due to negative polarity CH HSS influence.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Feb 28 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 59 Issued at 0030Z on 28 Feb 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 27 Feb I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 27/2400Z Feb Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 28 Feb to 01 Mar Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 58 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Feb 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (28 Feb, 29 Feb, 01 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 27/1410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1141 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (28 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Feb) and quiet to active levels on day three (01 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 27 Feb 071 Predicted 28 Feb-01 Mar 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 27 Feb 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 26 Feb 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Feb 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Feb-01 Mar 006/005-007/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Feb-01 Mar A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/25 Minor Storm 01/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/20/35
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Feb 27 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 27-Feb 29 2020 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 27-Feb 29 2020
Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb 29 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 27-Feb 29 2020
Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb 29 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 27-Feb 29 2020
Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb 29 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Feb 27 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity continued at very low levels as the visible disk remained spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 27-29 Feb.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels (2,170 pfu at 26/1950 UTC). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected reach moderate to high levels on 27-28 Feb, then return to moderate levels by 29 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were near background levels. Solar wind speeds averaged near 350 km/s and total field was between 2-4 nT. Bz began the period near 2 nT before turning southward after 27/0545 UTC to average near -3 nT through the remainder of the period. Phi oscillated between positive and negative solar sectors.
.Forecast… Near background conditions are expected through 29 Feb.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (27-29 Feb).
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Feb 27 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA058 UGEOA 20401 00227 0330/ 9930/ 1027/ 20271 3027/ 99999 UGEOE 20401 00227 0330/ 26/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00227 0330/ 26/// 10000 20700 3004/ 4///0 50000 64609 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00227 0330/ 26/24 27100 99999

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