Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 91 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr, 03 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 31/1355Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/0548Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 391 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (02 Apr, 03 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Mar 070 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 010/012-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr-03 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/20/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 40/30/20
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Mar 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2020
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 00-03UT 4 3 3 03-06UT 4 2 2 06-09UT 4 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 31 Mar due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2020
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2020
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Mar 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 31 Mar-02 Apr.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Mar-02 Apr due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 405 km/s to a maximum of 527 km/s at 30/2155 UTC. Total field ranged from 2-8 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-7 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… Influences from the negative polarity CH HSS are anticipated to continue causing a mildly disturbed IMF and enhanced solar wind speed field on 31 Mar-02 Apr. Conditions are anticipated to weaken slightly on 01-02 Apr as total IMF strength decreases.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels due to CH HSS effects.
.Forecast… Quiet to active periods are expected to continue through 31 Mar followed by quiet to unsettled periods on 01-02 Apr as CH HSS effects persist.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Mar 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA091 UGEOA 20401 00331 0330/ 9930/ 10311 21311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 00331 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00331 0330/ 30/// 10000 20690 3011/ 4///0 50000 61208 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00331 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Mar 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 091 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Mar 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Mar A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 008/010 X-ray Background A1.1 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.2e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 7.80e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 Planetary 1 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 F. Comments: None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Mar 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 31-Apr 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 31-Apr 02 2020
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 00-03UT 4 3 3 03-06UT 4 2 2 06-09UT 4 2 2 09-12UT 3 2 2 12-15UT 3 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2020
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 31-Apr 02 2020
Mar 31 Apr 01 Apr 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Mar 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. An active region rotated into view at approximately N28E70, but as of this report, there were only a few faint pores present as observed in SDO/HMI intensitygrams. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected 31 Mar – 2 Apr due to lack of sunspot groups.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Mar – 2 Apr due to CH HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of CH HSS onset. Total IMF strength unsteadily increased and reached a peak of 8 nT at 30/1724 UTC. The Bz component underwent prolonged periods of southward direction after 30/1500 UTC. Solar wind speed increased and reached speed in slight excess of 500 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly negative.
.Forecast… Influences from the negative polarity CH HSS are anticipated to continue causing a mildly disturbed IMF and enhanced solar wind speed field 31 Mar – 2 Apr. Conditions are anticipated to weaken slightly on 1 – 2 Apr as total IMF strength decreases.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period in response to CH HSS influences.
.Forecast… CH HSS effects are expected to result in early periods of active conditions on 31 Mar; with primarily quiet to unsettled conditions though the second half of the day. Slightly weakening solar wind conditions are likely to result in mainly quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance of an isolated active period, on 1 – 2 Apr.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Mar 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 91 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Mar 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Mar I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Mar Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Mar to 02 Apr Nmbr Lat Lo None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 90 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Mar 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Mar, 01 Apr, 02 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 520 km/s at 30/1956Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/1724Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/1722Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 527 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (31 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Apr, 02 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Mar 069 Predicted 31 Mar-02 Apr 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Mar 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Mar 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Mar-02 Apr 010/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Mar-02 Apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/30/20 Minor Storm 15/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 50/40/25
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Mar 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected to continue on 30 Mar – 01 Apr.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on 30 Mar – 01 Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected mostly nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength was at 6 nT or below, while the Bz component was primarily southward with a maximum southward extent of -5 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually declined through the period from about 420 km/s to near 350 km/s. The phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation with some positive sector rotations.
At 30/1132 UTC, an uptick in wind parameters was observed. Total field reached 8nT, while wind speed increased from about 360 km/s to 434 km/s.
.Forecast… Solar wind conditions are likely to observe an enhancement in solar wind conditions on 30 Mar – 01 Apr due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is likely to reach unsettled to active conditions 30 – 31 Mar due to negative polarity CH influence. Quiet to unsettled levels are likely on 01 Apr as influence from the CH HSS gradually wanes.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.