Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 May, 02 May, 03 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 333 km/s at 29/2210Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/2051Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at 29/2214Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 179 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 May, 02 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 May).
III. Event probabilities 01 May-03 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Apr 070 Predicted 01 May-03 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Apr 004/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Apr 002/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 May-03 May 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 May-03 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/25
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Apr 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2020
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 00-03UT 1 3 2 03-06UT 0 2 2 06-09UT 0 2 2 09-12UT 0 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2020
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2020
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Apr 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Regions 2760 (S08W24, Cro/beta) and 2762 (N22W55, Axx/alpha) remained inactive. The CMEs originating from the western limb mentioned in the previous discussion were analyzed, modeled and determined to be misses.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low 30 Apr – 02 May, with a slight chance for C-class flares.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Apr – 02 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 1-5 nT, and the Bz component was benign. Solar wind speeds fell below 300 km/s. Phi began the period in a positive solar sector before becoming negative at approximately 29/1541 UTC.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain at or near background levels throughout the forecast period (30 Apr – 02 May).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected on 30 Apr – 02 May as ambient solar wind conditions persist. Isolated periods of unsettled levels are possible throughout the forecast period.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Apr 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA121 UGEOA 20401 00430 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20302 30302 99999 UGEOE 20401 00430 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00430 0330/ 29/// 10024 20700 3003/ 4///0 50000 61108 74704 80103 90030 99999 UGEOR 20401 00430 0330/ 29/24 30102 12760 20000 30000 43112 50020 60002 31706 00000 12762 20000 30000 42012 50010 60002 44824 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Apr 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 121 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Apr 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Apr A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 024 Afr/Ap 004/002 X-ray Background A1.0 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 5.5e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.40e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 0 1 1 3 2 1 Planetary 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Apr 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 30-May 02 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 30-May 02 2020
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 00-03UT 3 3 2 03-06UT 2 2 2 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2020
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 30-May 02 2020
Apr 30 May 01 May 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Apr 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Spots re-emerged in Region 2760 (S06W17, Cro/beta), but despite the redevelopment, the magnetic gradient was loose and only weak shear was present. Newly numbered Region 2762 (N24W48, Bxo/beta) emerged but was also inactive and showed signs of decay as the period progressed.
A pair of faint CMEs were observed off the west limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery near 29/0800 UTC. The sources for these CMEs are not entirely clear. Although, analysis of SDO/AIA 171 imagery indicates these were likely associated with limb activity and appear not to have Earth-directed components. Analysis continues, however, and we are currently awaiting the return of a model run to verify initial analysis.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low 30 Apr – 02 May, with a slight chance for C-class flares.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Apr – 02 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected mostly nominal conditions. Total magnetic field strength ranged from 1-5 nT, and the Bz component was benign. Solar wind speeds averaged near 350 km/s. Phi was predominantly negative during the period.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to remain at or near background levels throughout the forecast period (30 Apr – 02 May).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected on 30 Apr – 02 May as ambient solar wind conditions persist. Isolated periods of unsettled levels are possible throughout the forecast period.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Apr 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 121 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Apr 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Apr I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2760 S06W17 306 0020 Cro 02 02 Beta 2762 N24W48 336 0010 Bxo 02 02 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Apr Nmbr Location Lo 2761 S18W41 330 II. Regions Due to Return 30 Apr to 02 May Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 120 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Apr 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 28/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 166 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (30 Apr, 01 May, 02 May).
III. Event probabilities 30 Apr-02 May Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Apr 070 Predicted 30 Apr-02 May 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 29 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Apr 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Apr 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Apr-02 May 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Apr-02 May A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/25 Major-severe storm 20/20/20
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Apr 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 29-May 01 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 29-May 01 2020
Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 1 2 2 06-09UT 0 2 2 09-12UT 0 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2020
Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 29-May 01 2020
Apr 29 Apr 30 May 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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