Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 31/0029Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/2105Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 30/2126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 105 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 May 071 Predicted 01 Jun-03 Jun 071/071/071 90 Day Mean 31 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 May 013/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun-03 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 05/05/05
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 May 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 31-Jun 02 2020 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 31-Jun 02 2020
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 1 1 2 06-09UT 1 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2020
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2020
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 May 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The Region in the NE that was responsible for the M1 flare on 29 May rotated onto the visible disk as plage with small intermittent pores. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares over 31 May – 02 Jun.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 31 May – 02 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters gradually decreased to nominal levels over the period. Solar wind speed ranged from 352-431 km/s. Total field decreased from 12 nT to near 3 nT while the Bz component was between +11/-8 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels through 02 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet levels are expected for 31 May – 02 Jun under a nominal solar wind regime.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 May 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA152 UGEOA 20401 00531 0330/ 9930/ 11311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 00531 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00531 0330/ 30/// 10000 20700 3014/ 4///0 50000 61008 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00531 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 May 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 152 Issued at 0245Z on 31 May 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 May A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was at active levels. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 013/015 X-ray Background A1.0 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 6.5e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.30e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 Planetary 2 3 4 4 4 2 2 3 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 May 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 31-Jun 02 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 31-Jun 02 2020
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 00-03UT 3 2 2 03-06UT 2 1 2 06-09UT 2 1 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 2 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 1 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2020
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 31-Jun 02 2020
May 31 Jun 01 Jun 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 May 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Only a small sunspot from the remains of the region that produced yesterday’s X-ray activity can be seen in SDO/HMI imagery. It will be assigned an active region number if it persists.
A filament was observed erupting from the SE limb beginning at 30/0003 UTC. A subsequent CME was identified in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 30/0125 UTC. Analysis and modeling of the CME suggested no Earth-directed component was present.
.Forecast… Solar activity is likely to be at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over 31 May – 02 Jun.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels 31 May – 02 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected the passage of a slow-moving enhancement in the IMF. Total magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 14 nT around 30/0500 UTC and slowly declined towards 6 nT by the period’s end. Several periods of sustained southward Bz accompanied the enhancement, with a maximum southward deflection of -13 nT observed at 30/0520 UTC. Phi angle transitioned from positive to negative after 30/0430 UTC.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expect to trend towards background levels over 31 May and reach nominal levels on 01 Jun through 02 Jun.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 31 May as enhancements in the solar wind subside. Mostly quiet levels are expected on 01-02 Jun under a nominal solar wind regime.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 May 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 152 Issued at 0030Z on 31 May 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 May I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z May Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 May to 02 Jun Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 431 km/s at 30/1703Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 30/0532Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 30/0525Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 217 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 May) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 May 070 Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 30 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 010/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 009/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/05/05
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 May 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 30-Jun 01 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 30-Jun 01 2020
May 30 May 31 Jun 01 00-03UT 2 3 2 03-06UT 3 3 1 06-09UT 3 2 1 09-12UT 3 2 1 12-15UT 3 2 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 30-Jun 01 2020
May 30 May 31 Jun 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 30-Jun 01 2020
May 30 May 31 Jun 01 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts.
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