Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 182 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jun 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Jul, 02 Jul, 03 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 393 km/s at 30/0310Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/0512Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 30/0223Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 163 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (01 Jul) and quiet levels on days two and three (02 Jul, 03 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jun 068 Predicted 01 Jul-03 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 30 Jun 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jun 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jun 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jul-03 Jul 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jul-03 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/05/05 Minor Storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/15/15 Major-severe storm 20/10/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jun 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 30-Jul 02 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 30-Jul 02 2020
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 2 3 1 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 0 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 2 2 1 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2020
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2020
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jun 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots, and no Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 30 Jun – 02 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below event thresholds this period.
.Forecast… Both the greater than 2 MeV electron and greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain at background or normal levels through 02 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels. However, a brief enhancement occurred near 30/0115 UTC likely due to a weak, faint transient. Wind speeds increased to a peak of 393 km/s, total field increased to 5-6 nT, and the Bz component briefly reached -5 nT. Phi was predominantly in a negative orientation with brief excursions into a positive solar sector during the aforementioned time frame.
.Forecast… Mostly nominal levels are anticipated for the period with possible weak intermittent influences from a negativity polarity CH HSS on 30 Jun – 01 Jul
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (30 Jun – 02 Jul) with isolated unsettled periods due to a weak, non-recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Jun 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA182 UGEOA 20401 00630 0330/ 9930/ 10301 20303 30303 99999 UGEOE 20401 00630 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00630 0330/ 29/// 10000 20690 3003/ 4///0 50000 61408 74704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00630 0330/ 29/24 30100 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Jun 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 182 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Jun 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jun A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/003 X-ray Background A1.4 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 6.1e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.60e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 0 0 1 2 1 1 Planetary 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 F. Comments: None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jun 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 30-Jul 02 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 30-Jul 02 2020
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 3 3 1 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 2 2 1 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 1 2 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2020
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 30-Jul 02 2020
Jun 30 Jul 01 Jul 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jun 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 182 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Jun 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Jun I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Jun Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 30 Jun to 02 Jul Nmbr Lat Lo None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jun 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 30 Jun – 02 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below event thresholds this period.
.Forecast… Both the greater than 2 MeV electron and greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain at background or normal levels through 02 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were nominal with solar wind speed averaging around 330 km/s. The IMF was unremarkable and the phi angle was mostly oriented in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… Nominal levels will persist through 02 Jul with possible weak intermittent influences from a negativity polarity CH HSS on 30 Jun – 01 Jul
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (30 Jun – 02 Jul) with isolated unsettled periods due to a weak, non-recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 363 km/s at 29/0121Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 214 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (30 Jun, 01 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (02 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Jun 069 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 003/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 008/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun-02 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/05 Minor Storm 05/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/25/15 Major-severe storm 20/20/10
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jun 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 29-Jul 01 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 29-Jul 01 2020
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 1 3 3 06-09UT 0 2 2 09-12UT 0 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 1 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2020
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2020
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.