Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jun 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 29 Jun – 01 Jul.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below event thresholds this period.
.Forecast… Both the greater than 2 MeV electron and greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event thresholds on 29 Jun – 01 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were nominal. Total field ranged from 3-4 nT while the Bz component varied weakly between +2/-3 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 322-357 km/s. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately negative solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 29 Jun. On 30 Jun – 01 Jul, a negativity polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective resulting in weak enhancements.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 29 Jun. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 Jun – 01 Jul due to weak, negative polarity CH HSS effects.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Jun 29 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA181 UGEOA 20401 00629 0330/ 9930/ 10291 20291 30291 99999 UGEOE 20401 00629 0330/ 28/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00629 0330/ 28/// 10000 20690 3004/ 4///0 50000 68109 74704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00629 0330/ 28/24 29100 99999

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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Jun 29 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 181 Issued at 0245Z on 29 Jun 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Jun A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 069 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 004/004 X-ray Background pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #20-26 2020 June 28 at 8:19 p.m. MDT (2020 June 29 0219 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For June 22-28
No space weather storms were observed during the summary period.
Outlook For June 29-July 5
No space weather storms are expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jun 29 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 29 Jun – 01 Jul.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below event thresholds this period.
.Forecast… Both the greater than 2 MeV electron and greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event thresholds on 29 Jun – 01 Jul.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speed ranged from 327-399 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-4 nT while the Bz component was between +3/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 29 Jun. On 30 Jun – 01 Jul, a negativity polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing weak enhancements.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 29 Jun. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 Jun – 01 Jul due to weak CH HSS effects.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jun 29 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jun 29-Jul 01 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jun 29-Jul 01 2020
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 00-03UT 2 2 2 03-06UT 2 3 3 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 1 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2020
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jun 29-Jul 01 2020
Jun 29 Jun 30 Jul 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jun 29 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 181 Issued at 0030Z on 29 Jun 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 28 Jun I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 28/2400Z Jun Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 29 Jun to 01 Jul Nmbr Lat Lo 2765 S26 125
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Jun 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (29 Jun, 30 Jun, 01 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 428 km/s at 27/2209Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 27/2121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 28/0018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 111 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (29 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (30 Jun, 01 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 28 Jun 069 Predicted 29 Jun-01 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 28 Jun 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 27 Jun 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Jun 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Jun-01 Jul 006/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Jun-01 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/15/15 Minor Storm 01/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/25/25 Major-severe storm 10/20/20
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