Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug, 03 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 381 km/s at 31/1530Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 31/0802Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 31/0757Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 169 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (01 Aug, 03 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day two (02 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Jul 072 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 073/073/071 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 007/008-010/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug-03 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/15 Minor Storm 05/10/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 30/40/25
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jul 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2020
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 00-03UT 1 2 3 03-06UT 1 2 3 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2020
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2020
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jul 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Regions 2767 (S21W53, Hsx/alpha) and 2768 (N26E34, Axx/alpha) continued to exhibit signs of weak decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for 31 Jul – 02 Aug.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event threshold for 31 Jul – 02 Aug.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, continued to reflect nominal conditions. Total field strength averaged near 3 nT, the Bz component was between +2/-5 nT, and the solar wind speeds were between 315 and 370 km/s. Phi angle rotated between both phi angle orientations.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to continue at nominal levels for 31 Jul. Enhancements consistent with a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS are expected on 01-02 Aug.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for 31 Jul and quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods possible, on 01-02 Aug due to possible CH HSS influence.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Jul 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA213 UGEOA 20401 00731 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 00731 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00731 0330/ 30/// 10022 20730 3004/ 4///0 50000 62608 74604 80002 90110 99999 UGEOR 20401 00731 0330/ 30/24 31102 12767 20000 30000 47201 50090 60001 34620 00000 12768 20000 30000 47201 50020 60001 14026 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Jul 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 213 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Jul 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jul A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Levels were quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 073 SSN 022 Afr/Ap 005/004 X-ray Background A2.5 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 5.6e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.40e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 1 3 1 2 2 1 0 Planetary 2 1 2 0 1 1 1 1 F. Comments: None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jul 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Both Region 2767 (S20W46, Hsx/alpha) and Region 2768 (N26E40, Hsx/alpha) were mostly quiet and exhibited signs of weak decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event threshold for the next three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, continued to reflect nominal conditions. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to – 7 nT. Solar wind speeds were between 315 and 330 km/s. Phi angle rotated between both phi angle orientations.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to continue at nominal levels for 31 Jul. 01-02 Aug may see enhancements consistent with a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for 31 Jul and quiet to unsettled on 01-02 Aug due to possible CH HSS impacts.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Jul 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 31-Aug 02 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 31-Aug 02 2020
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 1 2 3 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2020
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 31-Aug 02 2020
Jul 31 Aug 01 Aug 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Jul 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 213 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Jul 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Jul I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2767 S20W46 197 0090 Hsx 02 01 Alpha 2768 N26E40 111 0020 Hsx 00 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Jul Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Jul to 02 Aug Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Jul 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (31 Jul, 01 Aug, 02 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 382 km/s at 29/2217Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 30/0405Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 230 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (31 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (01 Aug, 02 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Jul 073 Predicted 31 Jul-02 Aug 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 30 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Jul-02 Aug 006/005-007/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Jul-02 Aug A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/25/35 Minor Storm 01/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor Storm 20/30/30 Major-severe storm 10/30/45
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Jul 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Both Region 2767 (S20W40, Hsx/alpha) and Region 2768 (N26E47, Hsx/alpha) were mostly quiet and exhibited signs of weak decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next three days.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron and 10 MeV proton fluxes are expected to remain below event threshold for the next three days.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, continued to reflect nominal conditions. Total field strength averaged near 5 nT and the Bz component saw a maximum southward deflection to – 7 nT. Solar wind speeds were between 320 and 370 km/s. Phi angle rotated between both phi angle orientations.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to continue at nominal levels for the next three days.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next three days.
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