Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 244 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 31/0841Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 31/1032Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 31/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3504 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Aug 070 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 070/070/070 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 021/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 013/015-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor Storm 15/15/10 Major-severe storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 30/25/25 Major-severe storm 50/50/40
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Aug 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. An eruptive filament was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 30/2258 UTC centered near N32E48. A likely associated CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery off the east limb beginning at 31/0336 UTC. Analysis will be performed as further imagery becomes available.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels on 31 Aug-02 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 2,800 pfu observed at 30/1845 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Aug-02 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were under the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed increased from 433 km/s to a maximum of 608 km/s at 31/0841 UTC. Total field ranged from 2-8 nT while the Bz component was between +6/-7 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 31 Aug and slowly wane on 01 Sep. Another positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective on 02 Sep causing further enhancement of the solar wind.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to G1 (minor) storm levels due to CH HSS activity.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on 31 Aug as HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 01 Sep. On 02 Sep, another positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to active levels.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Aug 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2020
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 00-03UT 4 3 2 03-06UT 5 (G1) 3 3 06-09UT 3 2 2 09-12UT 5 (G1) 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 3 18-21UT 2 2 4 21-00UT 3 3 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are expected on 31 Aug due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2020
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2020
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Aug 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA244 UGEOA 20401 00831 0330/ 9930/ 10311 21311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 00831 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00831 0330/ 30/// 10000 20700 3009/ 4///0 50000 61308 74604 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00831 0330/ 30/24 31100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Aug 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 244 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Aug 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Aug A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Field conditions were mostly at quiet levels with an isolated active interval early in the day. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 070 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 008/010 X-ray Background A1.2 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 9.0e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.6e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 9.90e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 4 3 1 2 2 1 3 Planetary 2 4 2 1 2 2 2 3 F. Comments: None
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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #20-35 2020 August 30 at 7:01 p.m. MDT (2020 August 31 0101 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For August 24-30
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions were observed on 28 August due to effects from a geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream.
No radio blackouts or solar radiations storms were observed during the summary period.
Outlook For August 31-September 6
No significant space weather is expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Aug 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 31-Sep 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 31-Sep 02 2020
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 00-03UT 3 3 3 03-06UT 3 4 3 06-09UT 2 3 2 09-12UT 2 3 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 3 3 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2020
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 31-Sep 02 2020
Aug 31 Sep 01 Sep 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Aug 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. No sunspots were observed and no Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels on 31 Aug-02 Sep.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 2,800 pfu observed at 30/1845 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Aug-02 Sep and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total field strength values hovered at around 4-6 nT and Bz was sustained southward at around -5 nT between 30/0300-0500 UTC. Solar wind speeds decreased slightly throughout the day, and ended the period at around 450 km/s.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 31 Aug-02 Sep due to continued, but weakening, CH HSS influence.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet this period, with an isolated active period observed between 30/0300-0600 UTC, due to continued, but weakening CH HSS influence.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated periods of active conditions due to CH HSS influence, on 31 Aug-01 Sep. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected to prevail on 02 Sep under waning CH HSS influence.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Aug 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 244 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Aug 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Aug I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Aug Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Aug to 02 Sep Nmbr Lat Lo None
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