NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Sep 22 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 22-Sep 24 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 22-Sep 24 2020
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 3 2 3 06-09UT 2 2 2 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 2 3 3 21-00UT 2 3 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2020
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2020
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Sep 22 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with numerous B-class x-ray events observed. The visible solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 22-24 Sep.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels on 22-24 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total magnetic field strength was mostly 5 to 9 nT. The Bz component generally varied between +3 to -5 nT and solar wind speeds meandered between about 270-325 km/s. Phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to persist at mostly background levels until the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS on day two (23 Sep) and into day three (24 Sep).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on day one (22 Sep). Days two and three (23-24 Sep) are expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled, with a likely active period late on 24 Sep, due to the arrival of the aforementioned CH HSS.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Sep 22 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA266 UGEOA 20401 00922 0330/ 9930/ 10221 20221 30221 99999 UGEOE 20401 00922 0330/ 21/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00922 0330/ 21/// 10000 20710 3003/ 4///0 50000 64808 74704 80000 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00922 0330/ 21/24 22100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Sep 22 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 266 Issued at 0245Z on 22 Sep 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Sep A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 071 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 003/002 X-ray Background A4.8 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.2e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.00e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 1 1 0 1 1 2 1 1 Planetary 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 F. Comments: None
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Sep 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with numerous B-class x-ray events observed. The visible solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 22-24 Sep.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels on 22-24 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total magnetic field strength was mostly 5 to 9 nT. The Bz component generally varied between +7 to -5 nT and solar wind speeds meandered between about 270-325 km/s. Phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to persist at mostly background levels until the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS on day two (23 Sep) and into day three (24 Sep).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one (22 Sep). Days two and three (23-24 Sep) are expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled, with a likely active period late on 24 Sep, due to the arrival of the aforementioned CH HSS.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Sep 22 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 22-Sep 24 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 22-Sep 24 2020
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 1 2 3 06-09UT 1 2 2 09-12UT 1 2 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 1 2 2 18-21UT 2 3 3 21-00UT 2 3 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2020
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 22-Sep 24 2020
Sep 22 Sep 23 Sep 24 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Sep 22 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 266 Issued at 0030Z on 22 Sep 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 21 Sep I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 21/2400Z Sep Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 22 Sep to 24 Sep Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Sep 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep, 24 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 323 km/s at 21/2042Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 20/2247Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 21/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 177 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (22 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (23 Sep) and quiet to active levels on day three (24 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 21 Sep 071 Predicted 22 Sep-24 Sep 071/072/074 90 Day Mean 21 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 20 Sep 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Sep 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Sep-24 Sep 006/005-008/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Sep-24 Sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/20/30 Minor Storm 01/05/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/30/30 Major-severe storm 10/25/40
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Sep 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with numerous B-class x-ray events observed. The visible solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 21-23 Sep.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels on 21-23 Sep.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected near-background conditions. Total magnetic field strength was mostly at 6 nT and below with a brief period of 9 nT between about 20/2250-2350 UTC. The Bz component generally varied between +7 to -5 nT and solar wind speeds meandered between about 270-320 km/s. Phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period.
.Forecast… The solar wind environment is expected to persist at mostly background levels until the anticipated arrival of a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS on day three (23 Sep).
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on days one and two (21-22 Sep). Day three (23 Sep) is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels due to the arrival of the aforementioned CH HSS.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Sep 21 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 21-Sep 23 2020 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 21-Sep 23 2020
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23 00-03UT 1 2 2 03-06UT 0 1 2 06-09UT 0 1 2 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 1 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 3 21-00UT 2 2 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 21-Sep 23 2020
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 21-Sep 23 2020
Sep 21 Sep 22 Sep 23 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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