Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (01 Oct, 02 Oct, 03 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 642 km/s at 30/1435Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 30/0242Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 29/2346Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 29293 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (03 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Sep 073 Predicted 01 Oct-03 Oct 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 30 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep 014/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep 017/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 013/015-011/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/10/05 Minor Storm 15/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/20/15 Minor Storm 30/20/15 Major-severe storm 45/10/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Sep 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 30-Oct 02 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 30-Oct 02 2020
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 00-03UT 4 4 3 03-06UT 4 4 3 06-09UT 3 4 3 09-12UT 3 4 3 12-15UT 3 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 5 (G1) 2 2
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day one (30 Sep) due to CH HSS influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2020
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2020
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Sep 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Sep – 02 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 30 Sep – 02 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected continue at background levels on 30 Sep – 02 Oct.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were enhanced again today due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed varied between 550-625 km/s over the period. Total field averaged near 5 nT while the Bz component varied between +5/-6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 30 Sep – 02 Oct from CH HSS influences. Elevated solar wind speed is likely to persist for the period, though slowly waning.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to continued CH HSS activity.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with an early, isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely on 30 Sep. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 01 Oct due to continuing but waning coronal hole high speed stream activity. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on 02 Oct as CH activity wanes.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Sep 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA274 UGEOA 20401 00930 0330/ 9930/ 10301 22302 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 00930 0330/ 29/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 00930 0330/ 29/// 10000 20730 3016/ 4///0 50000 62808 74504 80001 90000 99999 UGEOR 20401 00930 0330/ 29/24 30100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Sep 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 274 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Sep 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Sep A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 073 SSN 000 Afr/Ap 014/014 X-ray Background A2.7 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.2e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 5.20e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 4 3 4 2 3 2 2 2 Planetary 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 3 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Sep 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 30-Oct 02 2020 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 30-Oct 02 2020
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 00-03UT 5 (G1) 4 3 03-06UT 4 4 3 06-09UT 4 4 3 09-12UT 3 4 3 12-15UT 3 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 4 2 2
Rationale: G1 (Minor) storm conditions are likely early on 30 Sep due to elevated solar wind speeds associated with CH HSS influences. CH HSS influences are expected to weaken on 01-02 Oct and G1 or higher storm conditions are not anticipated.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2020
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 30-Oct 02 2020
Sep 30 Oct 01 Oct 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Sep 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was at very low levels under a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low on 30 Sep – 02 Oct.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 30 Sep – 02 Oct. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected continue at background levels on 30 Sep – 02 Oct.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were enhanced again today due to continued positive polarity CH HSS influence. Solar wind speed varied between 550-625 km/s over the period. Total field ranged from 6 nT to 3 nT while the Bz component varied between +5/-6 nT. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive (away) solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on 30 Sep – 02 Oct from CH HSS influences. Elevated solar wind speed is likely to persist for the period, though slowly waning.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to continued CH HSS activity.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active, with an early, isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions likely on 30 Sep. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 01 Oct due to continuing but waning coronal hole high speed stream activity. Mostly unsettled conditions are expected on 02 Oct as CH activity wanes.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Sep 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 274 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Sep 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Sep I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type None IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Sep Nmbr Location Lo 2773 N27W24 090 II. Regions Due to Return 30 Sep to 02 Oct Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (30 Sep, 01 Oct, 02 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 678 km/s at 29/0012Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 28/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 28/2353Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 13675 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (30 Sep), quiet to active levels on day two (01 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (02 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 29 Sep 073 Predicted 30 Sep-02 Oct 074/074/074 90 Day Mean 29 Sep 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep 021/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep 028/038 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 021/020-013/015-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/10 Minor Storm 30/15/01 Major-severe storm 10/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 05/15/20 Minor Storm 20/30/20 Major-severe storm 75/45/10
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Sep 29 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale G1). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 29-Oct 01 2020 is 6 (NOAA Scale G2).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 29-Oct 01 2020
Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01 00-03UT 4 5 (G1) 4 03-06UT 3 5 (G1) 4 06-09UT 3 4 4 09-12UT 3 3 4 12-15UT 4 3 2 15-18UT 3 2 2 18-21UT 4 2 2 21-00UT 6 (G2) 4 2
Rationale: G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storms are likely on days one and two (29-30 Sep) due to CH HSS influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2020
Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 29-Oct 01 2020
Sep 29 Sep 30 Oct 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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