Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (01 Nov) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day two (02 Nov) and expected to be very low on day three (03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 440 km/s at 31/0535Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 31/0921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/0939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7325 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (01 Nov), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (02 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (03 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Oct 077 Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 078/075/072 90 Day Mean 31 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 011/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/15 Minor Storm 15/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/25 Major-severe storm 45/30/25
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity decreased to very low levels this period. Both Regions 2778 (S21W75, Cao/beta) and 2779 (S16W65, Bxo/beta) underwent area and spot decay and were mostly quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… C-class flare activity is likely, with a slight chance for isolated M-class flare activity, over 31 Oct-02 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,658 pfu observed at 30/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Oct-02 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters decreased to nominal levels this period. Total field strength reached 6 nT while the Bz component reached -6 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between 400-450 km/s. Phi angle was highly variable throughout the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on 01 Nov due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 27 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 31 Oct-02 Nov, with isolated periods of active conditions likely on 01 Nov due to the anticipated arrival of the 27 Oct CME.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 31-Nov 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 31-Nov 02 2020
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 00-03UT 1 3 3 03-06UT 1 3 2 06-09UT 3 4 2 09-12UT 2 3 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01 Nov due to the arrival of a CME from 27 Oct.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2020
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2020
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Oct 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA305 UGEOA 20401 01031 0330/ 9930/ 11311 20311 30312 99999 UGEOE 20401 01031 0330/ 30/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 01031 0330/ 30/// 10032 20800 3005/ 4///0 50000 61207 74504 80002 90260 99999 UGEOR 20401 01031 0330/ 30/24 31102 12778 20000 30200 45312 50160 60006 37020 03000 12779 20000 30000 43312 50100 60006 35715 04100 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 305 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Oct 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Oct A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 080 SSN 032 Afr/Ap 004/004 X-ray Background B1.2 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.3e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 4.30e+08 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 Planetary 2 2 0 2 0 1 1 2 F. Comments: None.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 31-Nov 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 31-Nov 02 2020
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 00-03UT 2 3 3 03-06UT 2 3 2 06-09UT 1 4 2 09-12UT 1 3 2 12-15UT 1 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 2 21-00UT 3 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01 Nov due to the arrival of a CME from 27 Oct.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2020
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 31-Nov 02 2020
Oct 31 Nov 01 Nov 02 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: There is a slight chance for M-class flare activity on 31 Oct – 02 Nov due to potential flare activity from Regions 2778 and 2779.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Oct 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low this period. Regions 2778 (S20W70, Eao/beta) and 2779 (S15W57, Cao/beta) both exhibited minor spot decay and were mostly quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.
.Forecast… C-class flare activity is likely, with a slight chance for isolated M-class flare activity, over 31 Oct-02 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 8,660 pfu observed at 30/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 31 Oct-02 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters decreased to nominal levels this period. Total field strength reached 5 nT, Bz hovered near zero, and solar wind speeds were steady between 400-450 km/s.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on 01 Nov due to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 27 Oct.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 31 Oct-02 Nov, with isolated periods of active conditions likely on 01 Nov due to the anticipated arrival of the 27 Oct CME.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Oct 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 305 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Oct 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Oct I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2778 S20W70 087 0160 Eao 11 06 Beta 2779 S15W57 074 0100 Cao 08 06 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Oct Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Oct to 02 Nov Nmbr Lat Lo 2777 S24 265
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 304 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 30/0607Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8657 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (31 Oct, 02 Nov) and quiet to active levels on day two (01 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Oct 080 Predicted 31 Oct-02 Nov 080/080/078 90 Day Mean 30 Oct 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Oct 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov 008/008-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct-02 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/30/25 Minor Storm 05/15/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 30/30/30 Major-severe storm 30/45/30
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Oct 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 30-Nov 01 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 30-Nov 01 2020
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 00-03UT 2 2 3 03-06UT 2 1 3 06-09UT 1 1 4 09-12UT 1 1 3 12-15UT 2 1 2 15-18UT 1 1 2 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01 Nov due to the arrival of a CME from 27 Oct.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2020
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 30-Nov 01 2020
Oct 30 Oct 31 Nov 01 R1-R2 15% 15% 15% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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