Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Nov 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 577 km/s at 30/2045Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 30/0718Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 30/0718Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 30/1950Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 786 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (01 Dec, 02 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (03 Dec). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (01 Dec, 02 Dec, 03 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec Class M 25/25/25 Class X 05/05/05 Proton 10/10/10 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Nov 109 Predicted 01 Dec-03 Dec 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 30 Nov 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Nov 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 008/012-011/012-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Dec-03 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/10 Minor Storm 15/15/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-severe storm 50/50/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Nov 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity reached moderate levels today with a long duration M4 flare observed at 29/1311 UTC. This flare originated from a region just beyond the SE limb. Associated with this event was a Type II (765 km/s) radio sweep, a 240 sfu Tenflare, and a CME off the east limb first observed at 29/1325 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery (estimated velocity 1393 km/s). An EIT wave could be seen in SUVI 195 imagery beginning at 29/1355 UTC and a faint, asymmetric halo shock could be seen in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 29/1418 UTC.
Modelling of the CME indicated a miss, however the model didn’t encapsulate the full extent of the shock and the possibility remains for a potential shock enhancement/glancing blow on 01-02 Dec.
No significant changes were noted in the spotted regions on the visible disk. No additional CMEs were observed during the period.
.Forecast… Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 Strong or greater) on 30 Nov-02 Dec.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today with a peak flux of 1,660 pfu observed at 29/1410 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels, although a small bump was observed at the 10 MeV energy level after 30/0800 UTC.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Nov-02 Dec. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-minor) due to the potential for further significant flare activity from an unnumbered region rotating around the SE limb.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at mostly nominal levels through about 30/0700 UTC when parameters became enhanced. Solar wind speeds increased from about 425 km/s to about 525 km/s, total field briefly increased to 12 nT and the Bz component was mostly southward to -10 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominately positive sector throughout the period.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 30 Dec. A shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME is possible on 01-02 Dec causing an initial enhancement to solar wind speed, however the main body of the ejecta was not Earth-directed.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Dec. Unsettled to active periods are possible on 01-02 Dec with the possible arrival of the aforementioned shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Nov 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 30-Dec 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 30-Dec 02 2020
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 00-03UT 1 2 4 03-06UT 3 1 4 06-09UT 3 1 3 09-12UT 2 1 2 12-15UT 2 2 1 15-18UT 2 4 1 18-21UT 2 4 1 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2020
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 30 Nov – 02 Dec primarily due to potential from a new region rotating around the SE limb.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 29 2020 1311 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2020
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor – Moderate) and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts over 30 Nov – 02 Dec due to flare potential from Region 2786 and a new region rotating into the SE quadrant.
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Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data (The Weekly)

The latest version of “The Weekly” Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data is now posted on-line and available at www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/weekly-highlights-and-27-day-forecast
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Space Weather Outlook

Official Space Weather Advisory issued by NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado, USA
SPACE WEATHER ADVISORY OUTLOOK #20-48 2020 November 29 at 8:56 p.m. MST (2020 November 30 0356 UTC)
**** SPACE WEATHER OUTLOOK ****
Summary For November 23-29
R1 (Minor) radio blackouts were observed on 29 Nov due to flare activity from the SE limb.
No other space weather storms were observed during the summary period.
Outlook For November 30-December 6
No space weather storms are expected during the outlook period.
Data used to provide space weather services are contributed by NOAA, USAF, NASA, NSF, USGS, the International Space Environment Services and other observatories, universities, and institutions. More information is available at SWPC’s Web site swpc.noaa.gov
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA335 UGEOA 20401 01130 0330/ 9930/ 11301 20301 30301 99999 UGEOE 20401 01130 0330/ 29/01 12342 1311/ 13412 24499 21102 02402 ///// 9//// 99999 UGEOI 20401 01130 0330/ 29/// 10084 21161 3006/ 4///0 50100 64807 74704 80207 90930 99999 UGEOR 20401 01130 0330/ 29/24 30106 12783 20000 30000 47201 50020 60001 38922 00000 12785 20000 30100 47201 50090 60001 32223 00000 12786 20000 30100 46523 50770 60013 20317 15100 12787 20000 30000 41001 50010 60001 13729 00000 12788 20000 30000 43112 50030 60007 30726 01000 12789 20000 30000 41001 50010 60001 24325 00000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 335 Issued at 0245Z on 30 Nov 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Nov A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 1234 1311 1341 M4.4 110 240 II B. Proton Events: None. C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 116 SSN 084 Afr/Ap 006/004 X-ray Background B4.8 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 9.1e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.7e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 6.00e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 2 2 3 2 2 1 0 Planetary 0 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 F. Comments: None.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity reached moderate levels today with a long duration M4 flare observed at 29/1311 UTC. This flare originated from a region just beyond the SE limb. Associated with this event was a Type II (765 km/s) radio sweep, a 240 sfu tenflare, and a CME off the east limb first observed at 29/1325 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery (estimated velocity 1393 km/s). An EIT wave could be seen in SUVI 195 imagery beginning at 29/1255 UTC and a faint asymmetric halo shock could be seen in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 29/1418 UTC.
Modelling of the CME indicated a miss, however the model didn’t encapsulate the full extent of the shock and the possibility remains for a potential shock enhancement/glancing blow on 01-02 Dec.
.Forecast… Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for further M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) and a slight chance for X-class flares (R3 Strong or greater) on 30 Nov-02 Dec.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today with a peak flux of 1,673 pfu observed at 29/1410 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 30 Nov-02 Dec. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-minor) due to the potential for further significant flare activity from an unnumbered region rotating around the SE limb.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels with solar wind speed ranging from 337-390 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-6 nT while the Bz component was between +4/-3 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a negative (towards) solar sector until 29/1340 UTC when it became positive (away).
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at nominal levels on 30 Dec. A shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME is possible on 01-02 Dec causing an initial enhancement to solar wind speed, however the main body of the ejecta was not Earth-directed.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 30 Dec. Unsettled to active periods are possible on 01-02 Dec with the possible arrival of the aforementioned shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 335 Issued at 0030Z on 30 Nov 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 29 Nov I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2783 S22W89 071 0020 Hsx 02 01 Alpha 2785 S23W22 004 0090 Hsx 03 01 Alpha 2786 S17E03 339 0770 Fki 18 13 Beta-Gamma 2787 N29E37 305 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha 2788 S26W07 349 0030 Cro 06 07 Beta 2789 S25E43 299 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 29/2400Z Nov Nmbr Location Lo 2784 N32W83 065 II. Regions Due to Return 30 Nov to 02 Dec Nmbr Lat Lo None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Nov 30 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 30-Dec 02 2020 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 30-Dec 02 2020
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 00-03UT 2 2 4 03-06UT 1 1 4 06-09UT 1 1 3 09-12UT 1 1 2 12-15UT 1 2 1 15-18UT 1 4 1 18-21UT 2 4 1 21-00UT 2 3 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected; however, the periphery of the 29 Nov CME has the potential to cause elevated geomagnetic conditions on 01-02 Dec.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2020
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 S1 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There exists a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storms over 30 Nov – 02 Dec primarily due to potential from a new region rotating around the SE limb.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24 hours. The largest was at Nov 29 2020 1311 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Nov 30-Dec 02 2020
Nov 30 Dec 01 Dec 02 R1-R2 35% 35% 35% R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor – Moderate) and a slight chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts over 30 Nov – 02 Dec due to flare potential from Region 2786 and a new region rotating into the SE quadrant.
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