Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 366 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan) and expected to be very low on day three (03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 498 km/s at 30/2114Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 560 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Jan, 02 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (03 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 31 Dec 081 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 081/080/079 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 004/004 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 005/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan-03 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 01/01/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/25 Major-severe storm 10/10/25
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Dec 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low with only a few B-class enhancements observed. Region 2794 (S16W57, Hsx/alpha) remained little changed. Region 2795 (S18W30, Cro/beta) underwent further decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares over 31 Dec-02 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 31 Dec-02 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slightly enhanced but weakened state as CH HSS influences waned. Total IMF strength decreased and averaged primarily between 2 to 5 nT. The Bz component varied and reached a maximum southward deviation of -4 nT. Solar wind speed reduced from ~530 km/s to near 400 km/s. The phi angle had a few brief deflections into a positive sector, but was otherwise negative.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to continue trending towards an ambient, background state during the remainder of 31 Dec as CH HSS influences wane. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected on 01-02 Jan.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is anticipated to be primarily at quiet levels, the remainder of 31 Dec as CH HSS effects wane. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail 01-02 Jan.
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Dec 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 31-Jan 02 2021 is 2 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 31-Jan 02 2021
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 00-03UT 2 1 2 03-06UT 1 1 1 06-09UT 0 2 1 09-12UT 1 1 1 12-15UT 2 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 1 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2021
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2021
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2020 Dec 31 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA366 UGEOA 20401 01231 0330/ 9930/ 10311 20311 30311 99999 UGEOE 20401 01231 0330/ 30/06 00432 0043/ 00432 9//99 01002 0//// ///// 9//// 02332 0239/ 02432 01899 09202 0//// ///// 92795 04082 0408/ 04082 9//99 05902 0//// ///// 9//// 05182 0518/ 05182 9//99 01102 0//// ///// 9//// 09072 0913/ 09172 01199 02102 0//// ///// 9//// 14252 1425/ 14252 9//99 01302 0//// ///// 9//// 99999 UGEOI 20401 01231 0330/ 30/// 10026 20830 3009/ 4///0 50000 65708 74504 80002 90210 99999 UGEOR 20401 01231 0330/ 30/24 31102 12794 20000 30000 47201 50170 60001 35415 00000 12795 20000 30000 43112 50040 60005 32518 01000 99999

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Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2020 Dec 31 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 366 Issued at 0245Z on 31 Dec 2020 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Dec A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep 0043 0043 0043 100 0233 0239 0243 2795 B1.8 920 0408 0408 0408 590 0518 0518 0518 110 0907 0913 0917 B1.1 210 1425 1425 1425 130 B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: Levels were quiet. D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 083 SSN 026 Afr/Ap 006/006 X-ray Background A5.7 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 1.3e+05 GT 10 MeV 4.5e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 1.30e+07 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Planetary 2 2 1 2 1 1 0 2 F. Comments: None
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NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2020 Dec 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 31-Jan 02 2021 is 3 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 31-Jan 02 2021
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 00-03UT 3 1 2 03-06UT 3 1 1 06-09UT 2 2 1 09-12UT 2 1 1 12-15UT 1 1 1 15-18UT 1 1 1 18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 2 2 2
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2021
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2021
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Dec 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with only B-class enhancements observed. Region 2794 (S15W54, Hsx/alpha) remained little changed. Region 2795 (S18W25, Cro/beta) continued to undergo slow decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares over 31 Dec-02 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 31 Dec-02 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained indicative of a mildly enhanced state, possibly due to weak CH HSS influences of an isolated negative polarity CH HSS for the majority of the period. Total IMF strength ranged from about 2 to 7 nT, while the Bz component was variable and briefly reached a maximum southward deviation of -6 nT. Solar wind speed averaged mainly between ~470-530 km/s. Phi angle was negative until late in the period when it became oriented in a positive solar sector.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly enhanced during the first half of 31 Dec due to minor influences of the weak CH HSS and possible SSBC. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected on 01-02 Jan.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is anticipated to be at quiet levels, with a chance for isolated unsettled activity early on 31 Dec as CH HSS influences continue, but wane. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail 01-02 Jan.
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Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2020 Dec 31 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 366 Issued at 0030Z on 31 Dec 2020 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 30 Dec I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2794 S15W54 347 0170 Hsx 02 01 Alpha 2795 S18W25 318 0040 Cro 10 05 Beta IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 30/2400Z Dec Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 31 Dec to 02 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
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Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2020
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31 Dec, 01 Jan, 02 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 534 km/s at 30/1253Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 29/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0229Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 405 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (31 Dec) and quiet levels on days two and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 30 Dec 083 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 083/083/083 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 009/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec-02 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2020 Dec 30 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low with only B-class enhancements observed, the highest was a B6 at 29/2104 UTC. Region 2794 (S15W45, Hsx/alpha) remained little changed. Region 2795 (S18W17, Cao/beta) continued to undergo slow decay and was the source of most B-class X-ray enhancements. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares over 30 Dec-01 Jan.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to moderate on 30 Dec-01 Jan and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained indicative of a mildly enhanced state, possibly due to weak CH HSS influences of an isolated negative polarity CH HSS. Total IMF strength ranged from about 5 to 7 nT, while the Bz component was variable and briefly reached a maximum southward deviation of -7 nT. Solar wind speed averaged mainly between 450-525 km/s and the phi angle was negative.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to remain mildly enhanced on 30 Dec due to minor influences of the weak CH HSS. The return of a nominal solar wind regime is expected on 31 Dec-01 Jan as the small CH HSS rotates towards the west limb and any minor influences wane.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is anticipated to be at quiet levels, with a chance for isolated unsettled activity on 30 Dec as CH HSS influences continue, but wane. Quiet conditions are expected to prevail 31 Dec-01 Jan.
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