NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 18 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 18-Jan 20 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 18-Jan 20 2021
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 00-03UT 4 4 4 03-06UT 3 4 3 06-09UT 3 3 3 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 2 3 2 21-00UT 4 4 3
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2021
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 18-Jan 20 2021
Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar Region Summary (SRS)

:Product: Solar Region Summary :Issued: 2021 Jan 18 0030 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Region Summary SRS Number 18 Issued at 0030Z on 18 Jan 2021 Report compiled from data received at SWO on 17 Jan I. Regions with Sunspots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Nmbr Location Lo Area Z LL NN Mag Type 2796 S21W32 088 0010 Axx 01 01 Alpha 2797 S18E76 340 0090 Hsx 04 02 Alpha IA. H-alpha Plages without Spots. Locations Valid at 17/2400Z Jan Nmbr Location Lo None II. Regions Due to Return 18 Jan to 20 Jan Nmbr Lat Lo None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 18 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2796 (S21W32, Axx/Alpha) produced B-class activity during the period. New Region 2797 (S18E746, Hsx/Alpha) quietly rotated onto the SE limb. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class activity, on 18-20 Jan.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 18-19 Jan. Moderate to high levels are expected by 20 Jan due to CH HSS influence. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels through the period. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased through the period from 305 km/s to end-of-period speeds near 275 km/s. Total field remained at and below 5 nT and the Bz component varied between +1 to -4 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive orientation.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced on 18 Jan. A negative polarity CH HSS extension off the southern crown is expected to move into a geoeffective position, creating enhancements in the solar wind parameters. Enhancements are expected to continue through 20 Jan with additional HSS activity from positive polarity CHs in the northern hemisphere.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels with active periods likely on 18-20 Jan due to CH HSS influence.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Report of Solar Geophysical Activity (RSGA)

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 17 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jan 2021
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 316 km/s at 16/2105Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 17/0114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 17/2041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 189 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (18 Jan, 19 Jan, 20 Jan).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 17 Jan 077 Predicted 18 Jan-20 Jan 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 17 Jan 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jan 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jan 003/003 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jan-20 Jan 011/012-013/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jan-20 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/40/35 Minor Storm 10/15/10 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/10/15 Minor Storm 25/30/30 Major-severe storm 40/55/45
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 17 1232 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 17-Jan 19 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 17-Jan 19 2021
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 00-03UT 2 4 4 03-06UT 2 3 4 06-09UT 1 3 3 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 3 21-00UT 4 4 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2021
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2021
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 17-Jan 19 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 17-Jan 19 2021
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 00-03UT 2 4 4 03-06UT 2 3 4 06-09UT 1 3 3 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 3 21-00UT 4 4 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2021
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2021
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2021 Jan 17 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. Region 2796 (S21W26, Bxo/Beta) was stable and quiet during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels on 17-19 Jan.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 17-19 Jan. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels through the period. Solar wind speeds varied weakly between about 300-350 km/s, total field remained at and below 5 nT and the Bz component varied between +/-3 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately negative orientation.
.Forecast… Solar wind parameters are expected to be at predominately nominal conditions through midday on 17 Jan. After midday on 17 Jan, a negative polarity CH HSS extension off the southern crown is expected to move into a geoeffective position, creating enhancements in the solar wind parameters. Enhancements are expected to continue through 19 Jan with additional HSS activity from positive polarity CHs in the northern hemisphere.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the first half of 17 Jan. By midday on 17 Jan, conditions are expected to increase to quiet to unsettled levels with active periods likely. These conditions are expected to persist through 18-19 Jan.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Geoalert

:Product: GEOALERT :Issued: 2021 Jan 17 0330 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center. # Geoalert WWA017 UGEOA 20401 10117 0330/ 9930/ 10171 20171 30171 99999 UGEOE 20401 10117 0330/ 16/00 99999 UGEOI 20401 10117 0330/ 16/// 10015 20780 3004/ 4///0 50000 63108 74304 80001 90010 99999 UGEOR 20401 10117 0330/ 16/24 17101 12796 20000 30000 42012 50010 60005 32021 00000 99999

Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

Solar & Geophysical Activity Summary (SGAS)

:Product: Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary :Issued: 2021 Jan 17 0245 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar and Geophysical Activity Summary SGAS Number 017 Issued at 0245Z on 17 Jan 2021 This report is compiled from data received at SWO on 16 Jan A. Energetic Events Begin Max End Rgn Loc Xray Op 245MHz 10cm Sweep None B. Proton Events: None C. Geomagnetic Activity Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet D. Stratwarm: Not Available E. Daily Indices: (real-time preliminary/estimated values) 10 cm 078 SSN 015 Afr/Ap 002/002 X-ray Background A3.1 Daily Proton Fluence (flux accumulation over 24 hrs) GT 1 MeV 7.4e+04 GT 10 MeV 4.3e+04 p/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) Daily Electron Fluence GT 2 MeV 2.20e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day) (GOES-16 satellite synchronous orbit W75 degrees) 3 Hour K-indices: Boulder 0 2 1 1 2 2 1 0 Planetary 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 F. Comments: None
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.

NOAA 3-Day Forecast

Product: 3-Day Forecast Issued: 2021 Jan 17 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 17-Jan 19 2021 is 4 (below NOAA Scale levels).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 17-Jan 19 2021
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 00-03UT 2 4 4 03-06UT 2 3 4 06-09UT 1 3 3 09-12UT 2 2 2 12-15UT 2 2 2 15-18UT 2 2 2 18-21UT 3 2 3 21-00UT 4 4 4
Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2021
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 17-Jan 19 2021
Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.
Thank you for using the Product Subscription Service. If you would like to remove a product subscription or update the personal information in your account, go to: pss.swpc.noaa.gov. Please do not use the from address for correspondence, as it is not monitored. For comments or help, please contact us: pss.help@noaa.gov.