3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2016 Dec 30 0031 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 30-Jan 01 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 30-Jan 01 2017
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 00-03UT 2 4 4 03-06UT 2 3 4 06-09UT 1 3 3 09-12UT 1 3 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 3 4 3 18-21UT 3 5 (G1) 3 21-00UT 4 5 (G1) 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on day two (31 Dec) due to the onset of an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2017
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 30-Jan 01 2017
Dec 30 Dec 31 Jan 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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