3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2016 Dec 31 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 31-Jan 02 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 31-Jan 02 2017
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 00-03UT 2 4 3 03-06UT 2 4 2 06-09UT 3 3 2 09-12UT 3 3 3 12-15UT 3 3 2 15-18UT 4 3 2 18-21UT 4 3 3 21-00UT 5 (G1) 3 2
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely due to the onset of a positive polarity CH HSS on day one (31 Dec).
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2017
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 31-Jan 02 2017
Dec 31 Jan 01 Jan 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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