Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Jul 31 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity was very low. There were no sunspots, and there were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 31 Jul-02 Aug.
Energetic Particles
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 31 Jul-01 Aug, then increase to moderate to high levels on 02 Aug with CH HSS activity.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… The solar wind parameters were marginally elevated with the possible arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar winds speeds increased from around 350 km/s to near 400 km/s with the arrival of this feature. The magnetic field structure at L1 as sampled by the ACE spacecraft also showed a 5 nT increase in field strength and increased variability in the Bz component with onset. Phi switched from positive to negative, which is consistent with the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… Enhanced conditions are expected on 31 Jul-01 Aug with the negative polarity CH HSS. A return to background levels is anticipated on 02 Aug.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet, but became unsettled midday with what is thought to be the early arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS.
.Forecast… Unsettled to active levels are expected 31 Jul-01 Aug with a CH HSS. Quiet conditions return for 02 Aug.
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