3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Jan 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 30-Feb 01 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 30-Feb 01 2017
Jan 30 Jan 31 Feb 01 00-03UT 1 5 (G1) 5 (G1) 03-06UT 1 5 (G1) 4 06-09UT 1 4 3 09-12UT 1 3 3 12-15UT 2 3 3 15-18UT 2 3 3 18-21UT 3 3 3 21-00UT 4 4 4
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on days two and three (Jan 31 and Feb 01) due to the anticipated arrival of a co-rotating interaction region in advance of a recurrent, negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2017
Jan 30 Jan 31 Feb 01 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 30-Feb 01 2017
Jan 30 Jan 31 Feb 01 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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