3 Day Geomagnetic Forecast

:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2017 Jan 31 1230 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 31-Feb 02 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 31-Feb 02 2017
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 00-03UT 3 5 (G1) 3 03-06UT 3 4 4 06-09UT 3 3 3 09-12UT 4 3 3 12-15UT 3 3 3 15-18UT 4 3 3 18-21UT 4 3 3 21-00UT 5 (G1) 4 3
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on days one and two (31 Jan – 01 Feb) due to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2017
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 31-Feb 02 2017
Jan 31 Feb 01 Feb 02 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region flare activity is forecast.

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