Forecast Discussion

Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2019 Nov 08 0030 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary… Solar activity remained very low with a spotless visible disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
.Forecast… Very low solar activity is expected 08-10 Nov.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to moderate levels with a maximum of 978 pfu at 07/1735 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.
.Forecast… The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels 08-10 Nov, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary… Solar wind parameters reflected a return to a mostly background solar wind regime. Total field strength averaged near 4 nT, while the Bz component settled at near -2 nT. Solar wind speeds began the period near 435 km/s before steadily decreasing to ~350 km/s by period’s end. The phi angle was predominantly positive throughout the period.
.Forecast… Near background conditions are anticipated on 08-09 Nov, with intermittent, weak enhancements possible due to sporadic connection to isolated negative polarity coronal holes. By 10 Nov, additional enhancements are likely as a negative polarity southern polar extension is expected to move into a geoeffective position.
.24 hr Summary… The geomagnetic field was quiet.
.Forecast… Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 08-09 Nov, with a chance for isolated unsettled periods associated with possible, weak negative polarity coronal hole connections. By 10 Nov, unsettled to active conditions are expected as an extension from the southern coronal pole moves into a geoeffective position.
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